Post-Realignment Electoral Map? (user search)
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  Post-Realignment Electoral Map? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post-Realignment Electoral Map?  (Read 13136 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: January 14, 2018, 11:53:41 AM »

More of the Deep South/Gulf Coast than just GA/TX should give out by the time New England flips and New York gets competitive again, and I would expect GA and TX to be Lean D by that time.  I'm thinking LA and MS would go before SC or AL (under normal circumstances).  Also, not convinced at all that Florida trends Dem from here.  A massive influx of 2:1 Trump Midwestern retirees continues there.

Dem upsets going forward will be more like Jones and Bel Edwards (red states with anomalously religious medium/large cities) and less like Tester, Heitkamp, and Manchin (populists in very rural, agriculture/energy states).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2018, 06:31:35 PM »

Just to clarify, all of you do realize the prompt was "Realignment", not "Extrapolate the 2016 trends one election into the future?". This is an actual realignment.  
What could cause this?
This is my guess at the future of Between Two Majorities. Democrats go populist left, and the gop shifts to a libertarian centrism.

Yes, this looks like religious left Dems with a social justice streak vs. libertarian GOP with a technocratic streak.  I'm assuming FL, NY, GA, and TN are swing states?  It also looks like climate change has become a top tier issue with the depopulation of the gulf coast and the extra EVs in the northwest states.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2018, 06:28:42 PM »

This is increasingly plausible, and it would probably lead to 20+ years of a Dem House/GOP Senate split:

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