I think it will be a variant of your Scenario 1, but with the North to South shift for Democrats and South to North shift for Republicans being even more pronounced. As of now, I expect Trump to be reelected, and if he is, Roe will almost surely be overturned in the early 2020's. With abortion bans being upheld in socially conservative states, the Religious Right would lose a lot of steam as political movement, just like the early 20th century Religious Left movement rapidly declined after the New Deal SCOTUS finally upheld a child labor ban in the 1930's. I think Democrats would quickly go from 15% to 35% of the Evangelical vote in a post-Roe world. That would flip NC, GA, and even TX pretty much overnight and make places like KS, MS, and LA swing states. Meanwhile, most Northern states that aren't dominated by a city would become much more Republican. Even NorCal and the Pacific NW would swing right a bit. This would also make Mormons a lot more comfortable voting 3rd party or even Dem. A modest Dem win would look something like this:
