State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Skill and Chance]

And now, the 10 competitive races. 9 of these are Republican seats and 1 is a Democratic seat. Democrats look likely to win state Senate seats in Georgia and Washington and I would not be surprised if they won two or three of the other races here, and are likely favored to defend their one vulnerable seat in Michigan. However, without further ado:

Georgia HD 117

Both this district and 119 contain about a quarter of Athens as well as some of the surrounding rural areas. This seat was a very close Trump 49, Clinton 46 in 2016. The previous incumbent, Regina Quick (GOP) had not faced general election opposition in some time. I’m rating it a Toss Up.

Deborah Gonzalez (DEM)
Houston Gaines (GOP)

Georgia HD 119

Another Athens seat that Trump won 51-44. Will likely result in a runoff between the Democrat and one of the Republican candidates. Lean Republican.

Jonathan Wallace (DEM)
Lawton Lord (GOP)
Marcus A. Wiedower (GOP)
Steven Strickland (GOP)

Georgia SD 6

This district in the northern Atlanta suburbs swung to Clinton 55, Trump 40, and incumbent Hunter Hill (GOP) had a surprisingly close race, winning over Democrat Jaha Howard 52-48. Without the power of incumbency, Republicans will be hard pressed to hold this district. One factor is that there is an extremely crowded jungle primary, so there could be a wacky result. Lean Democratic.

Jaha Howard (DEM)
Jen Jordan (DEM)
Taos Wynn (DEM)
Charlie Fiveash (GOP)
Kathy Eichenblatt (GOP)
Leah Aldridge (GOP)
Leo Smith (GOP)
Matt Bentley (GOP)

ME HD 56

This Lisbon, Maine seat was a punishing Clinton 35, Trump 57, but was much closer in 2012, going Obama 40, Romney 47. This is definitely a stretch seat for Democrats, but they almost won it in 2012, losing it 52-47. Likely Republican.

Scott Gaiason (DEM)
Richard Mason (GOP)

Michigan HD 109

This seat takes in much of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, including Marquette, and flipped from an Obama 53045 victory in 2012 to a Trump 49-45 victory in 2016. This is the only seat I can see Democrats potentially losing this year, and it should be an interesting bellwether for races in Michigan in 2018. The previous incumbent, John Kivela, won in a landslide, 66-34, in 2016. Lean Democratic.

Cambensy (DEM)
Rossway (GOP)
Wade Roberts (GRE)

MO SD 8

This race in the Kansas City suburbs on paper should not be competitive, having gone for Trump 58-37 and Romney 59-39. However, polling has shown the race close due to the presence of a Trump conservative with high name recognition on the ballot, and he might play spoiler in favor of the Democrat, Hillary Shields, over a member of GOP leadership in the Missouri House of Representative, Mike Cierpiot. Toss Up.

Hillary Shields (DEM)
Mike Cierpiot (GOP)
Jacob Turk (IND)

NH HD Hillsborough 15

This swingly seat went Trump 53-43, but was a much narrower Roney 51-48 victory in 2012.  Considering recent New Hampshire races, this is certainly going to be a good Democratic pick up opportunity. Last election, one Democrat and one Republican was elected, and the Republican, Steve Vaillancourt, died of a heart attack. Toss Up.

Connors (DEM)
MacArthur (GOP)

WA HD 31

I doubt this Trump 50-42, Romney 50-48 seat will end up being competitive in light of the first round results, but crazier things have happened. Vacant following the appointment of Fortunado (GOP) to SD 31. Irwin got 57% in the first round. Likely Republican.

Lowry (DEM)
(I)Irwin (GOP)

WA SD 31

See above. Fortunato got 58% in the first round. Likely Republican.

Rylands (DEM)
(I)Fortunato (GOP)

WA SD 45

The marquee race of the cycle, with the Republican party scrambling to hold on to their Senate majority in Washington with this brutal Clinton 65-28 and Obama 58-40 seat. Dino Rossi was appointed to this seat but decided against running for the seat in the special election, instead opting to run for the retiring Dave Reichert’s (GOP) seat. The Democrat, Dhingra, got 52% in the first round. Lean Democratic.

Dhingra (DEM)
Englund (GOP)

Interesting.  Are there any Blue Dog Dems left in McCain/Romney/Trump seats in the GA Senate?  This would be the veto-sustaining seat for GA Democrats if they can flip GA-GOV and hold all of their other state senate seats.

[Skill and Chance]

And now, the 10 competitive races. 9 of these are Republican seats and 1 is a Democratic seat. Democrats look likely to win state Senate seats in Georgia and Washington and I would not be surprised if they won two or three of the other races here, and are likely favored to defend their one vulnerable seat in Michigan. However, without further ado:

Georgia HD 117

Both this district and 119 contain about a quarter of Athens as well as some of the surrounding rural areas. This seat was a very close Trump 49, Clinton 46 in 2016. The previous incumbent, Regina Quick (GOP) had not faced general election opposition in some time. I’m rating it a Toss Up.

Deborah Gonzalez (DEM)
Houston Gaines (GOP)

Georgia HD 119

Another Athens seat that Trump won 51-44. Will likely result in a runoff between the Democrat and one of the Republican candidates. Lean Republican.

Jonathan Wallace (DEM)
Lawton Lord (GOP)
Marcus A. Wiedower (GOP)
Steven Strickland (GOP)

Georgia SD 6

This district in the northern Atlanta suburbs swung to Clinton 55, Trump 40, and incumbent Hunter Hill (GOP) had a surprisingly close race, winning over Democrat Jaha Howard 52-48. Without the power of incumbency, Republicans will be hard pressed to hold this district. One factor is that there is an extremely crowded jungle primary, so there could be a wacky result. Lean Democratic.

Jaha Howard (DEM)
Jen Jordan (DEM)
Taos Wynn (DEM)
Charlie Fiveash (GOP)
Kathy Eichenblatt (GOP)
Leah Aldridge (GOP)
Leo Smith (GOP)
Matt Bentley (GOP)

ME HD 56

This Lisbon, Maine seat was a punishing Clinton 35, Trump 57, but was much closer in 2012, going Obama 40, Romney 47. This is definitely a stretch seat for Democrats, but they almost won it in 2012, losing it 52-47. Likely Republican.

Scott Gaiason (DEM)
Richard Mason (GOP)

Michigan HD 109

This seat takes in much of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, including Marquette, and flipped from an Obama 53045 victory in 2012 to a Trump 49-45 victory in 2016. This is the only seat I can see Democrats potentially losing this year, and it should be an interesting bellwether for races in Michigan in 2018. The previous incumbent, John Kivela, won in a landslide, 66-34, in 2016. Lean Democratic.

Cambensy (DEM)
Rossway (GOP)
Wade Roberts (GRE)

MO SD 8

This race in the Kansas City suburbs on paper should not be competitive, having gone for Trump 58-37 and Romney 59-39. However, polling has shown the race close due to the presence of a Trump conservative with high name recognition on the ballot, and he might play spoiler in favor of the Democrat, Hillary Shields, over a member of GOP leadership in the Missouri House of Representative, Mike Cierpiot. Toss Up.

Hillary Shields (DEM)
Mike Cierpiot (GOP)
Jacob Turk (IND)

NH HD Hillsborough 15

This swingly seat went Trump 53-43, but was a much narrower Roney 51-48 victory in 2012.  Considering recent New Hampshire races, this is certainly going to be a good Democratic pick up opportunity. Last election, one Democrat and one Republican was elected, and the Republican, Steve Vaillancourt, died of a heart attack. Toss Up.

Connors (DEM)
MacArthur (GOP)

WA HD 31

I doubt this Trump 50-42, Romney 50-48 seat will end up being competitive in light of the first round results, but crazier things have happened. Vacant following the appointment of Fortunado (GOP) to SD 31. Irwin got 57% in the first round. Likely Republican.

Lowry (DEM)
(I)Irwin (GOP)

WA SD 31

See above. Fortunato got 58% in the first round. Likely Republican.

Rylands (DEM)
(I)Fortunato (GOP)

WA SD 45

The marquee race of the cycle, with the Republican party scrambling to hold on to their Senate majority in Washington with this brutal Clinton 65-28 and Obama 58-40 seat. Dino Rossi was appointed to this seat but decided against running for the seat in the special election, instead opting to run for the retiring Dave Reichert’s (GOP) seat. The Democrat, Dhingra, got 52% in the first round. Lean Democratic.

Dhingra (DEM)
Englund (GOP)

Interesting.  Are there any Blue Dog Dems left in McCain/Romney/Trump seats in the GA Senate?  This would be the veto-sustaining seat for GA Democrats if they can flip GA-GOV and hold all of their other state senate seats.

There isn't even a single Democratic state senator in any Trump seats

OK, that's what I thought.  It looked like almost all of the Dems were from Atlanta with a few Dem seats in majority black areas downstate.

Dems in the State House can sustain a veto already with 62/180 seats, but it looks like at least 2 of those are either suburban Romney seats or rural McCain seats, so it's unstable.

[Skill and Chance]

Projecting a runoff for state senate district 6 in GA

State Senate - District 6 - Special General
18 of 50 Precincts Reporting - 36%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Howard, Jaha   Dem   3,848   31%
Jordan, Jen   Dem   2,911   24%
Aldridge, Leah   GOP   1,683   14%
Bentley, Matt   GOP   1,584   13%
Fiveash, Charlie   GOP   1,523   12%
Eichenblatt, Kathy   GOP   292   2%
Wynn, Taos   Dem   270   2%
Smith, Leo   GOP   176   1%

Isn't this a Dem pickup by default now?

[Skill and Chance]

Two days ago was the filing deadline in Georgia's 6th Senate district.
It is a suburban district that voted: 55-40 Clinton and 52-48 R in 2016.

Three Democrats (including the 2016 nominee) and five Republicans filed. Jungle Primary is on Nov 7 and a runoff would be on Dec 5. If no clear frontrunner appears on the Republican site maybe two Dems will make it to the runoff

I got this one right. Despite the fact that R leads D 51-49 with one precinct still missing, two Democrats will emerge to the runoff

Should the D vs. D runoff be considered an upset?  I'm sure CA's GOP congressmen are shuddering at the thought even though it's in another state.

[Skill and Chance]

Freedom map!
https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/930649947460046848?s=17

That's actually amazing. It's good to finally start making significant gains everywhere.

The precincts that flipped are barely correlated with Trump's margin in them!