AHCA Impact on 2018 Elections Part II

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats control the house 435-0. Not even NE-3 is free from the purge.

This, and Claire McCaskill wins every county in MO by at least 20 points and then the presidency in 2020 in 538-0 landslide. Even Barrasso is swept away on election day.

Oh, you wanted a serious answer? I doubt this will hurt the GOP much unless it is passed in the Senate without any major changes to the bill. I know this forum has already decided that 2018 will be a reverse 2010 (or worse) for Republicans, though.

Edit: Like windjammer said, if this debate is dragged on forever, it could weaken House Republicans in Clinton districts, but there are 18 months left until election day, so yeah...

It won't be the defining issue of the election unless it actually becomes law, but Cap and Trade did have a measurable effect on 2010 even though it only passed the House.  Probably cost the Dems 10ish Appalachian seats that wouldn't have defected over Obamacare alone.

Basically, Dems need to either win back a bunch of working class areas concerned about losing health coverage or find a way to get another 5 point swing out of the Southern suburbs (if tax reform fails, that will help their cause).

I do think that MT-AL just became interesting again because of this.  It's not clear what effect it will have in places like VA-10, IL-06, GA-06, and TX-07 where, statistically speaking, everyone already had health insurance before Obamacare.

[Skill and Chance]

I wouldn't make judgments based on the House version unless the Senate version mirrors it. Basically it would be irresponsible to judge this early. I strongly suspect the Senate will bury the bill or make it strongly more palatable.

Also please remember this isn't a reverse 2010. A lot of districts are heavily Republican naturally and are unlikely to elect Democrats. We're not in an era where Republicans are dislodged from Congressional majorities easily. The 2010 wave happened because a lot of people by default wanted a Republican congressional majority.

I'm sticking to marginal Democratic gains.

True, but all those Upper South Dems who had been in office forever going from easy wins to losing in 10-20 point landslides in 2010 implies that it is possible for Dems to e.g. go from tied to winning the white college grad vote 60/38 in a wave scenario.  Keep in mind, there is probably a good slice of the electorate that only voted GOP for congress last time because they were sure Clinton would win and didn't want either side to have full control.  That's what Republicans really need to be concerned about right now: all of the 2016 Johnson/McMullin/Write-in voters deciding to just vote Dem now that Trump actually won.