The Green Thread: Marijuana in the states

[Skill and Chance]

So what happens in Oklahoma?  Given Arkansas (56/44 No) and South Dakota (53/47 No), I'm anticipating about 60/40 No.

[Skill and Chance]

No 58-60% sounds about right. Chances may have been low to begin with, but it was DOA as soon as it was moved to some random March odd-year election.

Not as sure that applies anymore.  The left has been overrepresented in pretty much all special elections since Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, legalization basically performed like Generic Dem.  Will this be the new trend in marijuana referendums?

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty hilarious in a state where, according to NYT, nearly 10% of the population has a medical marijuana prescription. Guess this is the down-side of the medical argument: the "I already got mine" issue. Might've been a lot closer - or a completely different outcome - if every pothead conservative in the state couldn't legally toke up already because of "tennis elbow" or whatever.

The medical system in California before recreational passed was basically de facto recreational. It seems like the medical system in Oklahoma is even closer to recreational than California's was.

It looks like the state to watch this year will be Ohio, if it gets on the ballot. It should have made the ballot last year, but there was some sort of settlement agreement that pushed it to this year (assuming they can meet the signature requirement, of course). Ohio is a state that allows for initiatives in odd-years. That marijuana initiative may be in addition to an abortion rights amendment that would enshrine Roe-style protections into the state constitution (similar to Michigan's amendment last year). As for marijuana though, the most recent polling from a few months ago showed 60% support for recreational legalization.

If abortion is on the ballot this fall, the weed initiative will pass.

I think it's wise to punt both of these initiatives to 2024, in order to help Sherrod Brown. If they pass this year, some Dems might get complacent.

A 60% threshold for constitutional amendments narrowly failed in the legislature last fall.  If they're going to put initiatives on the ballot that go against the legislature, they should do it ASAP.