VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Skill and Chance]

It's strange how pretty much everyone has been treating the candidate who has consistently trailed in the polls as the favorite in this race from pretty much the day after the primary.  Not that he can't win and not that Northam hasn't done some dumb stuff this week, but the whole thing just seems very odd to me.

Nobody wants to be wrong especially after last year. I do remember the same thing being said about JBE during Louisiana in '15 saying he was going to lose just barely because it was Louisiana and ended up winning comfortably.

But this is more like everyone assuming a bland Republican running under a Dem president with 38% approval is going to lose a Gov race in Louisiana until the last minute.  Sure, VA is more like a Democratic Georgia than a Democratic Louisiana, but you get the idea.    

[Skill and Chance]

Early vote map:



Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source

A lot of the green is in prime Northam territory, although there's a couple of red areas sprinkled in there.

There's also plenty of green in the exurbs, but when you combine the high turnout in Hampton Roads with the lower EV turnout in SW VA, this looks encouraging for Northam, if conclusions can be drawn from it.

[Skill and Chance]

If I were Northam, I would be way more worried about that idiotic 3rd party ad (it could have singlehandedly given Gillespie Trump's rural margins) than I would be about DFA and the 2016 primary stuff.  Sanders got 35% in VA and DFA is now a fringe group obsessed with identity politics and he might actually be better off having them publicly oppose him.

[Skill and Chance]

The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

At this point, the kind of event that would return the Democrats to federal power (and control of 20+ states) would result in a double digit PV win anyway, so it's not this even matters.  Clinton would have done better with national EV-by-CD than WTA by state, and even more so if Justice Kennedy gets involved in the next redistricting like most expect him to.  It's just egging the Dems on more to change the rules in their favor the next time the get the chance.  Remember, it's likely that the hard left's only regret from the Obama years is not packing SCOTUS in 2009 so that they could unilaterally draw the maps in 2011 and throw out the EC in 2016.

[Skill and Chance]

The best news is that Virginia can allocate electoral votes by Congressional district soon.

At this point, the kind of event that would return the Democrats to federal power (and control of 20+ states) would result in a double digit PV win anyway, so it's not this even matters.  Clinton would have done better with national EV-by-CD than WTA by state, and even more so if Justice Kennedy gets involved in the next redistricting like most expect him to.  It's just egging the Dems on more to change the rules in their favor the next time the get the chance.  Remember, it's likely that the hard left's only regret from the Obama years is not packing SCOTUS in 2009 so that they could unilaterally draw the maps in 2011 and throw out the EC in 2016.

How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?

The EC itself couldn't be, but statewide WTA allocation could conceivably be held unconstitutional on 14th Amendment grounds (think Reynolds v. Sims, have to have approx. equal # of people per EV) or even 15th Amendment grounds (e.g. Hispanic voters packed into CA/TX and systematically underrepresented).  Look at the Warren court precedents on state-level elections.  It would probably require a similarly liberal Court, but it's certainly possible.  And if they held that the EC had to be allocated by CD or by equal size EC districts in each state, well, such a court would probably also be in the business of aggressively policing gerrymandering.

It's also worth noting that if there was Dem trifecta control of the federal government and states with 270+ EV, they wouldn't even need to get the courts involved, because the states could put NPVIC into effect and Congress could vote to explicitly authorize it, which would kill the likely Article I legal challenge.

[Skill and Chance]

How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?

NPVIC. It's not what he was talking about with court rulings, but it's perfectly possible to do an end-run around the electoral college, given that states are allowed to hand out their votes as they please. I'd also note that there are more than enough states that allow ballot initiatives or are otherwise already signed on to this to get the EV count past 270.

Yes, this is the only way it is going to happen in our lifetimes absent a very left wing SCOTUS (which will probably have to be packed if it is going to happen prior to ~2040).  And the precedent of court packing would take us down a very dark road (you could argue that the Garland situation was court packing, but there were at least 19th century precedents for that with Andrew Johnson and Zachary Taylor).

[Skill and Chance]

Average after Trafalgar release:

Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5
Rasmussen: Tie

Average: N + 1.5

Well it’s official this race is tied northam is up 1.2 on RCP you have him up 1.5 but regardless this is going to be a razor thin margin either way.

That's because RCP doesn't have Gravis yet, and that was surprisingly Northam's best poll of the week.

[Skill and Chance]

The last few pages of this thread will look so ridiculous when Northam inevitably wins by 5 points

I think the door has closed on that.  I still have him winning, but I would be quite surprised if he wins bigger than McAuliffe at this point.

[Skill and Chance]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

[Skill and Chance]

If Northam loses he has only himself to blame. Ever since tying Gillespie to White Supremacists with that horrendous AD of him his Poll Numbers were tumbling down.

Still think he is going to win in a squeaker.

No, that's fine.

Going crazy about the topic abortion in NOVA alone rather than a good strike at the asinine tax plan and skipping he Buena Vista Labor Day Parade...not fine.

Yup he running a bad campaign and gonna lose cuz he snubbed people who voted for Clinton in a town that cast about 2000 votes

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?off=0&year=2016&elect=0&evt=S&f=0&fips=51530&submit=Retrieve

Might I remind you that Tim Kaine and T-Mac were in much less precarious positions in 2012 and 2013 respectively than Northam is now? And yet they did it.

Not true

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/va/virginia_senate_allen_vs_kaine-1833.html

Yes, the 2005 Kaine/Allen race is the best hope for Dem overperformance here. 

You mean Kaine v. Kilgore?

That too. Kaine only led in RCP by 3 and won by 6 in 2005

The trajectory in the 2005 race was the opposite though.  Kilgore had the lead up until around 10/20 and then after that, polls started showing Kaine ahead.  Kaine went into election day with clear momentum unlike Northam.

Oops, no, I meant 2012.  VA was showing as statistically tied for both Obama/Romney and Kaine/Allen, with a lot of "momentum" for Republicans in October.  Then all of the Dems win by 4-6 despite the tied polling.

[Skill and Chance]

Average after Siena:

Siena: N+3
Trafalgar : N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie
Optimus: N+1.5

Average: N+2.1

As long as the average stays at this position (or goes higher for Northam), Northam should be fine.

You're including Optimus but excluding The Polling Company and WaPo?

Either way, would suggest Northam has just barely weathered the storm.