MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Skill and Chance]

I reckon most of the votes have been cast already thru early voting. This is one of the pitfalls of early voting.

The early vote is disproportionately hardcore partisans, so a lot of it was baked in regardless.  The undecideds/leaners are mostly voting tomorrow.

[Skill and Chance]

Remember, in 2010, Bob Etheridge lost an Obama district that wasn't even supposed to be competitive over this exact behavior.

[Skill and Chance]

The real question now is: What would the MT GOP prefer in 2018? Running against an incumbent Quist or running the incumbent Greg Gianforte? (assuming he even serves a full term - he might be pressured into retiring).

Probably the former.  Quist should go down to a competent challenger unless it's a Dem wave year, and even then, he's probably toast in 2020 with Trump's base turnout.  

Unless MT-02 happens, in which case Quist could entrench himself, however that looks unlikely.