Is there a potential VRA lawsuit out there for MD?

[Skill and Chance]

Not necessarily relevant to this, but: If the Republican didn't gerrymander the whole Midwest, I would be completely fine with a Rep getting another seat in MD. In fact, they probably SHOULD have 2 seats.

Agree completely.  Would love to see the MD map get taken down, as long as VA and NC get taken down with it.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm not sure what requirements were applied on RRH for MD to have 3 black seats, but there are two plans I put together back in 2011.

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

Lets see ...

If the minority groups want 3 black districts, and Edwards likes Montgomery better than Anne Arundel, and the GOP wants 2 solid seats, and it's best to leave all the members in their districts,

... then have I got a plan for you.



The black-majority districts 4, 5, and 7 have BVAPs of 53.9%, 51.1% and 56.6% respectively.

The two GOP districts 1 and 6 were 56.6% and 58.0% for McCain. All other districts voted for Obama, and had an average Dem vote in 2006-2008 of over 56%.

Interesting.  I presume the veto-proof bicameral Dem majority would never consent to #1, but I could easily see them drawing something like #2 if the current map is struck down.  It would be an improvement in compactness, if only a modest one.

[Skill and Chance]

Why on earth would the Dems draw that little gift to the Pubs, when this plan is just waiting out there to be drawn, to get right with the VRA, and still stick it to the Pubs?  Heck, my map is even prettier than you little exercise in grotesque erosity. I just do erosity light myself, and ignore county lines only where absolutely necessary.

How Dem is your CD 7 (equivalent of CD 6)?  Delaney had a very close call last year under the current lines.

[Skill and Chance]

Not necessarily relevant to this, but: If the Republican didn't gerrymander the whole Midwest, I would be completely fine with a Rep getting another seat in MD. In fact, they probably SHOULD have 2 seats.

Agree completely.  Would love to see the MD map get taken down, as long as VA and NC get taken down with it.

And FL, TX, GA, MI, OH, and PA. Seems like a fair trade.

FL is officially "fair" but the Dems are just so concentrated there that 17R/10D doesn't even require a gerrymander.