Quinnipiac national: Clinton leads everyone, only Paul and Rubio close

[Skill and Chance]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228

Clinton 46
Paul 42

Clinton 45
Rubio 41

Clinton 47
Huckabee 40

Clinton 46
Walker 38

Clinton 46
Christie 37

Clinton 47
Bush 37

Clinton 48
Cruz 37

Clinton 50
Trump 32

It is news that someone with a 100% name recognition cant break 50%. She is polling well under Obama's 2012 result.

Bush looks like a sure loser however.

I think the GOPe will dump Bush for Rubio

I don't think even incumbents who go on to win are over 50% in head-to-head polling 18 months before the election!  Some voters like to reserve the right to make up their mind at the last minute, but there is no evidence they break for or against incumbents on average.  Hence, the margins are what matter.  The last time someone polled over 50% more than a year before the election was probably G.H.W. Bush in early 1991, and we all know what happened there.

[Skill and Chance]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228

Clinton 46
Paul 42

Clinton 45
Rubio 41

Clinton 47
Huckabee 40

Clinton 46
Walker 38

Clinton 46
Christie 37

Clinton 47
Bush 37

Clinton 48
Cruz 37

Clinton 50
Trump 32

It is news that someone with a 100% name recognition cant break 50%. She is polling well under Obama's 2012 result.

Bush looks like a sure loser however.

I think the GOPe will dump Bush for Rubio

Obama was at 46-48% against Romney in summer 2011. Ask President Romney how that worked out.

Obama did get historically rapid economic improvement from fall 2011 onward that wasn't easy to foresee.  He probably truly would have lost in Nov 2011.  His only hope would be the electoral college.