There Is No 'Blue Wall'

[Skill and Chance]

Well, this is one narrative of the past 24 years.  The other one is that Dems are basically getting a constant share of the white vote since 1984, Perot interrupted what would otherwise have been an FDR style streak for Republicans in the 1980's/90's, and Obama breaking through was entirely about demographic change.  Exit polls suggest Perot drew evenly from R's and D's, so I lean toward Silver's explanation, but the alternative argument is also compelling.

[Skill and Chance]

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

The GOP can win 65% of the white vote....with all the race baiting going on currently, I predict they win 70% in 2016

LOL

There's a hard floor in the white vote of granola types, single women, latte liberals, gays and their supporters, Reform Jews, unionites, young urbanites, the highly educated, and New Englanders who will never, ever vote for the Republican party in it's current form.

This is true, but going by liberal/progress self-ID in polling, this floor is 25-30% (which is a GOP electoral college win until and unless Texas flips), not the current 35-40%.  Union voters can be up for grabs under the right circumstances.