Very interesting. I tend to think that if Bush Sr. won reelection, Republicans would hold the White House clear through to 2008, assuming 9/11 and the War on Terror happen as IRL. 1996 seems like an automatic incumbent party win based on the economy and if Bush did that well in 2000 with Clinton uber popular, I can't imagine an R incumbent losing in 2000. And the rally-around-the-flag effect in 2004 would be just enough to keep the streak going unless the mortgage crisis somehow came early. But the 2008 Dem probably cracks 60% in that world.
I think this is what would have happened in reality if Republicans won in 1992
Reagan 1980-1988
Bush 1988-1996
Cuomo- 1996-2004(Republicans really didnt have a great field that year)(Republican Revoultion happens in 1998 instead of 1994)
Gore- 2004-2008
Romney- 2008- Present
That would be exciting for sure. I generally think we have had too many turnovers in the White House recently relative to what is historically normal. But for Perot, Watergate, and Nixon agreeing to debate on television, we could easily be living in a world with ~20 year cycles:
1932-52: D (FDR and Truman)
1953-1968: R (Eisenhower and Nixon)
1969-1980: D (RFK and Mondale)
1981-2008: R (Reagan, G.H.W. Bush, Dole, McCain)
2009-2028: D (Obama, Warren, Castro)
