OK 2018: Boren open to running

[Skill and Chance]

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Oklahoma+midterm = Boren loses

You do realize Boren won reelection to the House in 2010 with 56% of the vote, right?

At that time, I believe it was the most democratic district in the state, although it did still have a republican PVI.

Not true. OK-5, the Oklahoma City district, is the least Republican PVI, though that district is more historically Democratic.

It all depends on who is President. If Hillary is President, Dan won't run, because no matter what, Oklahoma will elect a Republican. If it's a Republican who is President, then the opportunity is there, especially after 8 years of Mary Fallin. I wouldn't be surprised if Dan won in that scenario, considering the Boren name has a very positive effect on people in this state (though I'm sure he does very poorly in Stillwater ).

I think he's the right type to have a reverse Charlie Baker opening with an R president.

[Skill and Chance]

Am I the only person who doesn't understand how when the Socialist Party was semi-relevant in the early 20th century, Oklahoma was one of their best states?

I don't see the contradiction.  Oklahoma has always been socially conservative, but when the vast majority/plurality of the population practiced subsistence agriculture and lived through the Dust Bowl, the left was strong there.  When the majority of the population now has easy access to $50-150K oil-related jobs and can continue to live the 1950's social conservative lifestyle on those incomes due to the low cost of living, the left basically ceases to exist.

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

[Skill and Chance]

Am I the only person who doesn't understand how when the Socialist Party was semi-relevant in the early 20th century, Oklahoma was one of their best states?

I don't see the contradiction.  Oklahoma has always been socially conservative, but when the vast majority/plurality of the population practiced subsistence agriculture and lived through the Dust Bowl, the left was strong there.  When the majority of the population now has easy access to $50-150K oil-related jobs and can continue to live the 1950's social conservative lifestyle on those incomes due to the low cost of living, the left basically ceases to exist.

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

So Oklahoma was kind of like a populist state during the early part of the 20th Century, but shifted to a more conservative state beginning in the 1950s.

Yes.  Most of the more rural and less diverse Southern states show this behavior.  Some here are very intent on insisting that they are still populist, but the children of the FDR voters used the New Deal to get educated and buy property.  Even though their incomes are pretty average to slightly below, post-1950, they don't feel poor in any meaningful sense of the word.  Ike was the realignment.

[Skill and Chance]

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

Ah yes, a collapse in the state's chief export commodity would surely make them more receptive to the Democratic Party.

That worked out so well in West Virginia and Kentucky...

WV and KY were controlled in ironclad fashion by Democrats during the heyday of said commodity.  OK and TX for that matter are completely dominated by Republicans.  If things go south at the state and local level, who else is there to blame?  Think of the socially conservative Plains states and the 1980's farm crisis.  The Democrats grabbed several House and Senate seats and a couple of legislative chambers in very naturally Republican areas. 

[Skill and Chance]

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

Ah yes, a collapse in the state's chief export commodity would surely make them more receptive to the Democratic Party.

That worked out so well in West Virginia and Kentucky...

WV and KY were controlled in ironclad fashion by Democrats during the heyday of said commodity.  OK and TX for that matter are completely dominated by Republicans.  If things go south at the state and local level, who else is there to blame? 

Obama

In 2018?  Okay, Bush was still pretty toxic in CA/NY/MA in 2010, but what if oil falls to $25 and stays there throughout the 2020's with a 2 term Republican president elected in 2016?  Of course those are big assumptions, but if you're looking for a world in which OK and TX can plausibly elect a bunch of statewide Democrats prior to 2040, that's it. 

[Skill and Chance]

I don't see how any of that stops the Republicans, who would have been in power in OK the entire time, from saying, "B- b- but, it's the EPA and the Department of Energy's fault! And if Barack Hussein Obama hadn't passed all those job-killing environmental regulations from 2009 to 2017, none of this would have happened!"

I could see Oklahoma electing statewide democrats before TX, as TX seems to have a more diverse economy (not just oil/NG) at this point.  Obama's Presidency would be a tough one to overcome.  Of course, if a GOP President is elected for 8 years and oil stays at $25/barrel, barring a recession or major war, said President would be quite popular.

Great point.  North Dakota and Alaska would also be likely to feel the crunch earlier and react before Texas.  They're also less culturally conservative than Oklahoma.  Of course, this would probably have to involve oil prices being cut in half again after Obama leaves office.  And yes, $25 oil would probably give the GOP president 60% approval nationally, but we have seen this kind of divergence before with extractive industries, e.g. 1988 and 2012.