Skill and Chance
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« on: November 17, 2014, 11:09:21 PM » |
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Thanks for the map, Miles! Some observations:
1. Rural Texas is behaving like an extension of Appalachia, not like Deep South. It's remarkable how strong this trend is even with a Texan on the ticket in 2004.
2. You can see hints of the emerging Democratic problems in Iowa and rural Maine here.
3. Florida Republicans look precarious. The trend in Orlando and Miami is quite dramatic.
4. The NC mountains (outside of Asheville) look overdue for a hard right shift. There were hints of this in the Tillis win. If it happens, it would be enough to take NC back off the map for a while.
5. The Kerry home state effect was quite strong, considering MA barely moved from 2008-12.
6. Georgia looks like a much better D opportunity than Arizona here, but I wonder how much of that is the result of Obama's unique strength with black voters?
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