2014 Senate results by CD

[Skill and Chance]

Until Miles give the official results for VA, I can at least give an educated guess at to what each breakdown should be.

1.  54-43 R
2.  51-46 R It's tighter than that-this is the one that could go either way
3.  77-21 D Probably a bit lower
4.  50-48 R I don't think it's that tight, but Warner > McAuliffe here
5.  55-43 R
6.  61-37 R
7.  55-43 R
8.  69-29 D Warner had some issues here, probably low 60's
9.  59-38 R
10.  49-48 R Cuccinelli won this by 1, so Gillespie probably won by 4-5
11.  55-43 D Clearly a Warner win, probably 56-58%

[Skill and Chance]

VA:



Warner seems like he did really poorly CD1, vis-à-vis Obama '12, who only lost it by 7.5%.

This is also the first major election, at least in a few cycles, where CD9 was more Dem than CD6.

For comparison, here is McAuliffe vs. Cuccinelli (from Bloomberg):

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Of course, we have to keep in mind that Sarvis took much more in 2013.  What stands out to me is that Gillespie not only won CD-10, but did better there than in CD-04!  Also, CD-11 stayed impressively strong Dem so the divide was inner vs. outer suburbs with the exurbs returning to 60/40 GOP without social issue weirdness.  CD-02 looks like a much better Dem target than CD-10 going forward and CD-04 could get interesting due to the incumbent's social issue extremism.  The demographic change factor actually showed up most in the Richmond area this time around.

[Skill and Chance]

Fallin vs. Dorman
OK-01: Fallin 58.67% (97,995), Dorman 38.36% (64,068)
OK-02: Fallin 52.23% (84,994), Dorman 43.11% (68,835)
OK-03: Fallin 61.14% (104,231), Dorman 35.61% (60,711)
OK-04: Fallin 53.48% (88,811), Dorman 43.25% (71,820)
OK-05: Fallin 52.26% (77,466), Dorman 44.85% (66,483)
Either OK-04 or OK-05: Fallin 50.89% (6,801), Dorman 47.31% (6,322)

It's pretty amazing that OK-02 isn't Dorman's best district.
It's even more amazing that Fallin's home district delivered the the smallest margin for her.

Oklahoma was Obama's 3rd best county in 2012 and the only one that didn't rely on any Blue Dogs.  So CD-05 was bound to become the least conservative district sometime this decade.  In places like OKC and the fastest growing parts of West Texas, the influx of young people for the oil boom seems to actually be moving them to the left because the existing population was just so unanimously conservative.

[Skill and Chance]

Maybe it has just become too polarized, but I feel like a huge Democratic wave would be absolutely detrimental to the GOP in North Carolina.

Whilst there are a lot of North Carolinians from Ohio (Pat McCrory), there aren't as many from Indiana and thus they lack the critical knowledge of that state's history of getting too greedy with the mapping. We'll see.

They should have just left Shuler and McIntyre as they were and that would have allowed them to create far more Republican districts in the second, third, eighth and tenth districts.

CD-13 looks like the biggest problem.  That outer Wake seat is VA CD-11 waiting to happen and I think it would flip in the next R president midterm.  Of course, the legislature would just vote-sink that Dem in 2021.  CD-02, 05, and 09 would flip in a 1974 style Dem wave, but they would probably be won back the next cycle so I don't understand the GOP concern there.

[Skill and Chance]

^ In 2021, I think a southeastern Fayetteville-Lumberton D sink is the best option for Rs. That way, even if CD13 flips, CD4 wouldn't have that leg into Fayetteville and could soak up more Democrats in the Triangle. That way, Rs would have a good chance of winning 13 back.

The biggest question with making a southeastern sink is that the Rs would have to leave CD12 the same. By 2021, I'm not sure it could still do "double duty" by containing Democrats in both Charlotte and the Triangle.

If I were the NC GOP in this scenario and the Raleigh/Durham suburbs are blue enough that NC-13 flipped, I would just draw the Dem who beat Holding from eastern Wake down to Fayetteville.  Then NC-04 can go from Durham/Chapel Hill west to the Triad.  That would be a solid 10R/4D map.