Hardest 2X Obama/2X Bush State for the GOP

[Skill and Chance]

Well, what do you think?

[Skill and Chance]

Nevada followed by Florida in my opinion.

Fascinating.   Obama's performance with retirees was probably far below generic D.  I personally see Florida moving left of Ohio in 2016, but left of VA and CO?

[Skill and Chance]

The thing with VA is that it looks close but doesn't really seem close under the surface:

1.  The GOP probably can't get to 40% in Fairfax (Fairfax = 1/8th of the total vote) with it's current attitude toward the federal government.  This is essential to winning statewide.  Obenshain, for example had probably the best rural VA showing ever for an R, but he lost Fairfax 61/39 and that did him in.  If the GOP reaches out to federal employees, however, it could backfire severely in other states.

2.  African-American turnout seems to have increased permanently and black voters show no signs of moving away from Democrats.

3.  The relative lack of Hispanic voters means there wouldn't be as much to gain in VA from a Southwestern strategy that could win back the other Bush-Obama states.

[Skill and Chance]

Here's another take on the 3 Tiers America. 1st Tier involves Solidly Democratic states (as of 2012), 3rd Tier involves Solidly Republican states, while 2nd Tier involves all other states, those states that are most likely to decide the outcome of the 2016 election. I call them the Battleground States. The logic is the same as in the one I used above, that is dividing the 50 US states + D.C. into 3 categories of roughly the same importance/power (that is around 179-180 EVs per Tier).

1st Tier (Solidly Democratic)

1. Washington D.C.: 3 EVs
2. Hawaii: 4 EVs
3. Vermont: 3 EVs
4. New York: 29 EVs
5. Rhode Island: 4 EVs
6. Maryland: 10 EVs
7. Massachusetts: 11 EVs
8. California: 55 EVs
9. Delaware: 3 EVs
10. New Jersey: 14 EVs
11. Connecticut: 7 EVs
12. Illinois: 20 EVs
13. Maine: 4 EVs
14. Washington: 12 EVs
= 179 EVs

2nd Tier (Battleground States)

1. Virginia: 13 EVs
2. Ohio: 18 EVs
3. Colorado: 9 EVs
4. Pennsylvania: 20 EVs
5. New Hampshire: 4 EVs
6. Iowa: 6 EVs
7. Nevada: 6 EVs
8. Florida: 29 EVs
9. Wisconsin: 10 EVs
10. Minnesota: 10 EVs
11. Michigan: 16 EVs
12. North Carolina: 15 EVs
13. New Mexico: 5 EVs
14. Oregon: 7 EVs
15. Georgia: 16 EVs
= 184 EVs

3rd Tier (Solidly Republican)

1. Utah: 6 EVs
2. Wyoming: 3 EVs
3. Oklahoma: 7 EVs
4. Idaho: 4 EVs
5. West Virginia: 5 EVs
6. Arkansas: 6 EVs
7. Kentucky: 8 EVs
8. Alabama: 9 EVs
9. Nebraska: 5 EVs
10. Kansas: 6 EVs
11. Tennessee: 11 EVs
12. North Dakota: 3 EVs
13. South Dakota: 3 EVs
14. Louisiana: 8 EVs
15. Texas: 38 EVs
16. Alaska: 3 EVs
17. Montana: 3 EVs
18. Mississippi: 6 EVs
19. South Carolina: 9 EVs
20. Indiana: 11 EVs
21. Missouri: 10 EVs
22. Arizona: 11 EVs
= 175 EVs

The most controversial pick of these is whether Georgia belongs to the Battleground category or the Solidly Republican one. Yet to make the three groups as even in power and number of EVs as possible, it resulted that Georgia tilted a little bit more towards the Battleground after all. All states are ranked from strongest to weakest, while the Battleground states are ranked from most toss-up to least.

And the map.

It'll be interesting to see how many of these 15 Battleground states end up being (seriously) contested come 2016 as well as how many of the non-Battleground states might turn competitive as well in the end. According to early polls, non-competitive states like Louisiana, Kentucky, Arkansas and Texas could in fact turn surprisingly competitive, while I think there has been done none polls so far in much closer 2012 states like Arizona, Missouri and Indiana. On the Democratic side, only one of the Solidly Democratic states look competive so far (New Jersey), yet it's way too early to tell since there have been done practically no polling in those states at all, except for New York and New Jersey.

Basically you have three Battleground areas of the US. Ranked after importance, those are:

1. Midwest (+ New Hampshire)
2. Atlantic South
3. Latino West (+ Oregon)

In order of the cumulative number of EVs available, these regions include the following number of EVs and states:

1. Midwest; 84 EVs; Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan
2. Atlantic South; 73 EVs; Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia
3. Latino West; 27 EVs; Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon

All in all, the Midwest results only slightly stronger than the Atlantic South, in terms of presidential competitiveness. What we also see is that the enormous press focus on the swingy latino mountain states has been vastly exaggerated, as these states contain only a very few EVs each. This will, of course, change the day both Arizona and Texas will make themselves competitive. The Midwest and the Atlantic South contain as many as 157 EVs up for grabs, while the 3 Western Latino states + Oregon together only contain 27 EVs, not even reaching 20% of the number of the two other regions.

Great analysis!  In a very close election we might even narrow it to OH+PA+IA vs. VA+FL vs. CO+NV in which case the South and Midwest still have about twice as many swing EV as the Rockies to offer.  If a Republican is winning other Midwestern states or a Democrat other Southern states, they are probably gravy.

[Skill and Chance]

I want to say Nevada, but what about a concerted GOP effort to appeal to Mexican Americans?  Or a Susana Martinez nomination?  There seems to be one really obvious thing they need to do to win Nevada, which is true for some states but not others:

Nevada: Appeal to Mexican-American Hispanics
Colorado: Appeal to upscale social liberals/environmentalists, Nevada strategy also helps here
Ohio: Working class/private sector union outreach- this would also make PA/MI/WI more interesting

That leaves VA and FL, which have no one obvious strategy.  Do you try to drive up margins in the culturally Southern parts of the state and risk alienating social liberals in the suburbs?  Do you reach out to the suburbs and risk a loss of rural turnout?  These two states are both quite diverse in demographics and lifestyles, so no one particular group is large enough to swing them.  The Colorado strategy would get you back over 40% in Fairfax and Dade, but what would the Clinton-McCain areas think about that?  Florida may be close enough that it doesn't matter, but I'm not sure.     
 

[Skill and Chance]

I think it is Ohio. Hillary struggles in CO. I can see The GOP nominee winning the state of CO, also. NM is to the left of Ohio and the two states have voted identically since 1912. 2000 when Gore didn't win, NM voted correctly for the popular vote winner. Especially, if it is Jeb, the bellweathers will be OH.

I doubt it.  Ohio is one of the only states where Obama managed to underperform polling in 2012.  In light of all the unique circumstances there, it should have been the high water mark for Dem performance in Ohio relative to the country.  And yet he failed to even match his national margin (Kerry in 2004 is still the Dem high water mark in Ohio- he made it vote left of the nation).  All things considered, I would be more concerned that Ohio slips off the playing field in the GOP direction, similar to Missouri.