Explaining Republican Electoral Problem (Using Purely 2012 Election)

[Skill and Chance]

Universal swing doesn't exist in real life.

Yes, I realize that, but generally do you think elections would be somewhere around/near the maps posted above?

I could easily see CO and VA switching places next time around, but the basic premise would still hold true.  VA is going to be one tough nut to crack for an anti-fed gov party going forward and the events of this week are probably hurting the GOP worse there than in any other swing state.  Whereas in CO, Bush will be an increasingly distant memory by 2016 for the libertarian indies there.

[Skill and Chance]

This is a map of where white voters were more liberal or more conservative than their national average in 2012:

Remarkably, this correctly predicts 47 states and DC.  And in VA Romney and McCain got the same % of white voters despite the national swing, so the white vote there could easily be left of the nation next time around.

[Skill and Chance]

Sorry but...Dems winning nationally by 10% -> Georgia,Arizona,Missouri,Indiana not swinging,at the VERY least?

Well, if you give Obama 55% in 2012 with uniform swing, GA would be on a knife's edge with Obama leading by 0.2% and all of those other states would still be narrowly won by Romney.  And there is a strong argument that GA would swing less than the nation (although it will probably trend another point or 2 left).  So if a generic D won with 55% in 2016, they would only pick up NC and maybe GA over Obama 2012.  The Democrat needs to get about 56% for the likely R tier of states to fall.

If Hillary wins with an Ike style margin in 2016, this is what I would expect:

Clinton/Democrat 363 (55.1%)
Republican/Republican 175 (43.3%)

[Skill and Chance]

You don't think these fantasies of Clinton and Obama landslides are a little unrealistic and wishful liberal thinking? What would you Democrats say if Republicans made maps of Christie and Rubio landslides. Both are just as unlikely.

I think the baselines are as follows for 2016:

Generic D vs. Generic R = 50/50 race, probably decided by 1 state

Hillary vs. Generic R = Reverse Ike 1952, Clinton gets about 55%

Christie vs. Generic D = Bush 2004 level win for Christie

Christie vs. Clinton = Obama 2012 level win for Clinton

So yes, I do think Clinton starts out as a heavy favorite.  But if Obama has fallen to Bush 2007-08 approvals, she just won't run in the first place.  I don't see anything particularly unreasonable about this and I've gone to great pains to be fair to both sides.