Maryland’s leftward swing

[Skill and Chance]

Maryland is now more left-wing than Massachusetts.

The difference between Maryland and Massachussetts is that Maryland is much less elastic/swingable due to the fact that the Dem strength comes from minority voters, unlike Massachusetts. 

This is also why many of us think it will be very hard for the Republicans to get VA back in a presidential year, as opposed to CO, PA, NH, IA, etc. where there are more true swing voters.

[Skill and Chance]

Seeing that Democrats actually increased their number in Maryland's house delegation in 2012, and the more conservative Virginia is also veering to the left, Democrat incumbents don't have much to really worry about.

The thing with VA is that the lower house is so brutally gerrymandered right now that Democrats would probably have to win by 6X/3X statewide to take it back.  So I don't see D's taking full control of VA until at least 2022 regardless of what it does presidentially.