Possible Bipartisan Support for Carbon Tax

[Skill and Chance]

Let's think about how a Carbon Tax vote would go down.  Assume the House agrees to wrap it into a large-scale budget deal and it moves to the Senate (big assumption, I know):

Likely Democratic Nays

Manchin
Landrieu
Begich
Heitkamp

Possible Democratic Nays

Pryor
Rockefeller (would vote for it only if he is retiring)
Baucus (would presumably vote for any budget he crafted, though)
Tester (would probably vote with Baucus)
Casey (will want natural gas concessions)
McCaskill
Donnelly

Likely Republican Ayes

Collins
Ayotte
Kirk

Possible Republican Ayes

Heller (solar)
McCain (solar)
Grassley (biofuels)
Ron Johnson (biofuels)

It looks plausible to pass it in a budget agreement under reconciliation, but it could never be done as a stand-alone.