Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Skill and Chance]

Well, this is awful. Obviously I'm not from the Barrow wing of the party, but I'm realistic: it'd take someone like him to win this seat in 2014 - and that's against Broun. Electorate's bound to be between 61-62% white next year; it's going to take a white conservadem to have a shot.

Barrow, on the other hand, must either think that he'll have a shot at 2016, or doesn't want to be a Senator. Maybe a deal was struck? If he doesn't run in 2016, then he'll probably never get a shot otherwise. The shifts in the state and within the Democratic Party won't be too welcoming to him past then if he doesn't get into the Senate. The primaries that DPG is worried about will become a bigger likelihood by the end of the decade as you have everyone lining up to try to win statewide office.

I'd actually like to see him run for Governor instead, but the state party's saying he will stay in his CD.

As far as Michelle Nunn goes: does she look like the next Senator from Georgia? Maybe - if she doesn't talk about progress, empathy and cooperation.

Barrow's situation is complex because he's a moderate to conservative Dem and his state appears to be trending left nationally.  If he wants to go statewide, he needs to follow a similar path to Mark Warner and be prepared to drift into line with national D's over the decade if he wins.  I think he is holding out for 2016 and a Hillary run.  He wouldn't need a mentally ill opponent to take that seat in a presidential year.

He could also be eyeing the (presumably) open seat 2018 Gov race.  He would likely have either President Hillary or an R midterm at his back.  He would also get to veto 2021 redistricting if he won, which could be huge for the state party (how viable is holding the GOP under 2/3rds in the legislature?). 

[Skill and Chance]

Barrow's situation is complex because he's a moderate to conservative Dem and his state appears to be trending left nationally.  If he wants to go statewide, he needs to follow a similar path to Mark Warner and be prepared to drift into line with national D's over the decade if he wins.  I think he is holding out for 2016 and a Hillary run.  He wouldn't need a mentally ill opponent to take that seat in a presidential year.

He could also be eyeing the (presumably) open seat 2018 Gov race.  He would likely have either President Hillary or an R midterm at his back.  He would also get to veto 2021 redistricting if he won, which could be huge for the state party (how viable is holding the GOP under 2/3rds in the legislature?). 

I agree. It was either in one of the earlier articles or from another source that I read the biggest concern for Barrow was that he would not be capable of elevating turnout or enthusiasm among females or African-Americans, which is obvious. In 2016, Hillary and/or a presidential year turnout could put Barrow in for sure. This arrangement makes the most sense: Nunn now, Barrow in '16. If he doesn't run then, though, it's going to be hard for him to win any statewide race. Maybe Governor, like you said, but I think once Georgia is in the position to flip, statewide races are going to become real Democratic-leaning, real fast.

And for holding the Republicans under 2/3rds with the current maps: yes, but not by much. Effectively, you'll probably still have a 'conservative' supermajority until a few of those House districts break out late-decade.

I'm not so sure about this.  Remember, it took a Republican midterm to really get the process started in VA.  And in NC it started with Obama's near landslide 2008 win, but then you had the concurrent trend of conservaDems abandoning downballot D's there. Georgia seems to be drifting left, but I think it will take a Republican midterm to push it over the edge statewide.

[Skill and Chance]

Handel's in.

What is it that people see in her that makes her such an awesome candidate?  She has minimal electoral experience and was tied to a huge and unnecessary controversy at Komen.  I just don't see what the buzz is about.

[Skill and Chance]

Well you trended 2 more points to the left and were about 11 points right of center. With all things being equal, Georgia would be about 56-44. I'd say you're about as close as Indiana, Arizona, and South Carolina. You have a ways to go and Obama being black helped him in the peach state tremendously. You know I love how liberals say "it's just a few elections away" when it comes to southern states and Arizona. Actually, both parties are guilty of wishful thinking, but the Democrats do it worse. I see my party do it with New Jersey but unless some of the liberals migrate back to NY, it will remain a purplish blue.

This is a little OT, but CT, not NJ is by far the best R opportunity for a new swing state in the Northeast.  Look how hard CT swung toward Romney as opposed to the Obama swing in NJ. CT and GA could both be legit purple in the 2020's if social issues subside.

[Skill and Chance]

Michelle Nunn raises 1.7 million in the 3rd quarter, has 1.4 million COH.

I'm impressed, and I'm still praying Handel doesn't get the nom.

Kingston >> Handel >> Gingrey > Broun

Kingston's the one Nunn should fear.  His connection with rural voters thwarts one of her best angles.  Handel is a paper tiger who thrusts herself into unnecessary controversies and could easily have her own weird/ridiculous gaffe.  I'm also not convinced that Broun is materially worse than Gingrey.

[Skill and Chance]

I agree that Carter is now better positioned than Nunn, with the GOP primary fortunes of Broun and Gingrey falling and Deal looking worse and worse.  However, Nunn could have a populist opening against Perdue with his recent college education comments.  I'm starting to worry about Handel again if she gets momentum from that gaffe.  

The biggest loser might end up being John Barrow for declining any statewide run this year.

[Skill and Chance]

Thoughts on the GOP runoff?  I think Perdue would be likely to pick up Handel's metro Atlanta support while Kingston would gain Broun and Gingrey's bases running as the rural candidate.  If Perdue really does get most of Handel's metro support, it should be enough for him to win, but those 70-80% Kingston counties with super high turnout have to make Perdue nervous.

I wonder who Nunn would rather face?  If she gets Kingston, she can do the whole run against congress as an outsider routine and she could expect to have an easier time in the suburbs.  Perdue would cause problems for her as she would need to rely more on rural crossover support that may no longer exist.  However I think Perdue as a first time candidate is much more likely to say something ridiculous during the campaign that would give Nunn an opening.

[Skill and Chance]

WAKE UP, YOU SILLY THREAD

Was just doing some thinking about how much Georgia has changed, and thought I'd illustrate with a hypothetical (being, "what if Clinton only did as well as John Kerry among all races, and not just blacks?"):

2004...
Kerry got 23-24% among whites
Kerry got 88% among blacks
Kerry got 43% (!?!) among latinos
Kerry got an unknown number among asians/other voters (let's assume 50%)
This led to Kerry receiving 41.34% of the vote

2016...
Clinton gets 23-24% among whites
Clinton gets 88% among blacks
Clinton gets 43% among latinos
Clinton gets 50% among asians/other voters
This leads to Clinton receiving 46.38% of the vote

I maintain - especially in retrospect - that the DNC picked the wrong state (NC) to invest in in 2008. When you look at 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections with respect to Democratic performance between GA & NC, there's evidence that they picked the wrong one.

Fascinating thought there.  I guess it really comes down to three things:

1.  Could Jim Martin have been pulled over the line by the Obama campaign in GA?  Would Elizabeth Dole's Sunday school teacher = atheist meltdown have given the Democrats a 6 year rental in NC regardless of investment there?
2. Would Gwinnett and Cobb, combined with better margins in the already Dem parts of Atlanta flip the state alone?  I didn't appreciate the degree of rural dependence for a Dem path to victory in NC until recently, but it will seriously hurt them for some time.
3. GA redistricting can be vetoed while NC can't.  Would there have been a serious chance of electing Barnes in 2010 with sufficient 2008 investment?  If a Democrat can get elected governor in 2018, is there a reasonable path to holding Republicans under 2/3rds in the legislature for 2021?

[Skill and Chance]

According to the AJC, it looks we would have avoided the supermajority even if Bennett had lost.  But it's still a sweet win--and hopefully, the start of a serious Democratic comeback in the years to come...

Technically the GOP was already one seat short but they could usually rely on Rusty Kidd (the only Independent in the General Assembly) to get them the exact number needed.  Now, that's assuming that the Democrats remained totally united in their opposition - something that cannot always be assured, naturally.

Interesting.  Is this the only GOP-leaning seat they would need to hold going forward to sustain a veto, or are there conservadems left in rural seats?  This could be particularly relevant come 2021 if you know what I mean.

[Skill and Chance]

If Ossoff wins GA-06 (and particularly if it isn't a 50.5/49.5 squeaker win), GA-GOV 2018 needs to be treated as a top tier race.  Clinton #'s in the Atlanta suburbs + Obama #'s in the Black Belt = 50% statewide.   

[Skill and Chance]

I'm disappointed that Carter wont run again. Hopefully we can nominate someone who can pull off a victory.

I think he'll run again, just not this cycle

I'm not really sure this is the time to be nominating anyone from a political family anyway.

[Skill and Chance]

If Ossoff wins GA-06 (and particularly if it isn't a 50.5/49.5 squeaker win), GA-GOV 2018 needs to be treated as a top tier race.  Clinton #'s in the Atlanta suburbs + Obama #'s in the Black Belt = 50% statewide.

The question is, who--if anyone--can replicate the positives in both Clinton and Obama's numbers. We know African-American voters aren't turning out like they used to.

They might turn out at Obama levels for the 1st black governor of GA.  The best possible Dem candidate would be either a little-known African-American state legislator with a moderate streak (the JBE path) or a celebrity who has never held elected office (the Trump path).  Stacey Abrams fits the first description, which is why this election intrigues me so much.

[Skill and Chance]

Just for reference, here were the 10 counties with the most GOP primary vote in 2016:

1.  Cobb (112k)
2.  Gwinnett (98k)
3.  Fulton (84k)
4.  Cherokee (50k)
5.  DeKalb (44k)
6.  Forsyth (42k)
7.  Hall (32k)
8.  Chatham (30k)
9.  Henry (28k)
10.  Columbia (26k)

So I'd say there's definitely enough GOP votes in Fulton/DeKalb/Cobb/Gwinnett for Cagle to make it close.  What he's got to worry about is Brian Kemp's performance in exurban counties like Forsyth, Cherokee and Henry, and Cagle has to keep it close (if not win) Savannah and Augusta.

I would say Cagle's benchmarks are something like 2/3 of the vote in Gwinnett and Cobb, and closer to 80% in Fulton/DeKalb.

Cagle's biggest concern would be that something like 15% of the 2014 R primary voters in those counties are going to take the Dem ballot this time, like in VA-GOV 2017. 

[Skill and Chance]

Which party would a GE runoff be more beneficial to?  I can see a serious argument that it would help Dems given the turnout disparities we are seeing in special elections nationwide.  On the other hand, the GOP has actually done quite well in post-Trump special elections within Georgia.

[Skill and Chance]

Evans is the female Jon Ossoff. Abrams is electable.

The first part is true.
The second part makes me skeptical.

Abrams is "electable" in the sense that she has an actual chance of winning... even if it is only a 10% chance.

I think Abrams ends up losing by about 7, but she is also the only dem candidate I can see winning this race.

I'm inclined to agree with this.  Evans would do reasonably well, but I have a hard time seeing her getting that last couple of percent to 50 -- i.e., she'd be in Ossoff territory.  Abrams has a lower floor but a higher ceiling.  I think the most likely outcome is that she'd lose by 7-10 points, but there's some possibility of a breakthrough that would let her eke out a narrow win.

I also increasingly agree with this.

[Skill and Chance]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

Cherokee 2014: 91.7 R, 8.1 D (7349 votes)
Cherokee 2018: 82.7 R, 16.8 D (7849 votes)

Forsyth 2014: 90.2 R, 7.4 D (6813 votes)
Forsyth 2018: 78.2 R, 18.1 D (12182 votes)

Do you think Georgia is liable to flip earlier than expected? These swings are humongous.

If Georgia is flipping, that means it's a Democratic rout nationwide.

Not necessarily, it's quite possible that GA is moving to even PVI overnight like VA did. 

[Skill and Chance]

So this is interesting - and not necessarily the result (at least in distribution) you'd expect based on media framing...

The population taking the Dem ballot in North GA must be down to the committed liberals now?