The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Skill and Chance]

Cuyahoga County (Ohio) ballot requests so far:

87,375 Democrats (54%)
38,515 Republicans (24%)
35,817 Indies (22%)

161,707 Total

2008: 69-30 Obama (overall result)

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf

Very important note on the Ohio numbers: Ohio does not have party registration.  Party breakdowns are calculated based on primary election ballot requests.  That is, if someone voted in the GOP primary this year, they are a Republican for purposes of this count.  If someone voted in the Dem primary, they are counted as a Democrat.  The same goes for the 2008 counts to which this data is being compared.

Of course, the 2012 Dem primary and 2008 GOP primary were uncontested in Ohio.   

[Skill and Chance]

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http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

Yeah, but if you're a democrat in 2008, and you dont vote in 2010, that still means youre registered as a democrat in 2012 by that standard.  They don't just reregister your party as an unaffiliated voter.  You have to request an absentee ballot to get one, which means that democrats still aren't requesting ballots at the rate republicans are.  That means enthusiasm is down.

No.  It doesn't reach back to 2008.  Ohio party affiliation is calculated going back 2 years, so 2010 and 2012 primaries count, 2008 does not.

"(3) That the person is not affiliated with or is not a member of the political party whose ballot the person desires to vote. Such party affiliation shall be determined by examining the elector’s voting record for the current year and the immediately preceding two calendar years as shown on the voter’s registration card, using the standards of affiliation specified in the seventh paragraph of section 3513.05 of the Revised Code."

http://codes.ohio.gov/orc/3513.19

If you didn't vote in the D primary in 2010 or 2012, you aren't considered a Democrat in Ohio.

[Skill and Chance]

Over at ACE in response to crazy marist IA early vote poll

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When polls ask if people voted early, I would imagine it includes those who plan to but haven't yet, etc.  You can't go by a running total because someone with a request in the mail will report themselves as voting early.

[Skill and Chance]

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http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/viewart/20121020/NEWS01/310200012/GOP-voters-flock-early-ballots

Does he account for the uncontested D primary this year vs. 2008?

[Skill and Chance]

This is overall encouraging for the GOP.  We have to remember, though, that McCain didn't really play the early voting game at all in most states while Romney is trying significantly harder on that front.  The degree to which either party is merely cannibalizing election day turnout will be very important here.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats netted another 5000 votes in Clark County today, bringing their lead in the county to 23,000. Nevada continues to slip away.

Clark Co. shows a closing of 2.1 points from 2008 total, so far.  Obama will win early voting across the US, but by greatly reduced numbers.

But it's not true that better than 2008 = Romney wins that state.  Unless we are talking about NC or IN, Romney needs to do dramatically better than 2008 to flip states.  2004 is a good standard of comparison where available.  How did 2004 early voting look in NV, VA, etc?  I know we have that data for IA and it looks reasonably good for Romney, but what about the other states?

[Skill and Chance]

Including absentees, Democrats now have a 30,500 raw vote margin in Clark County. Republicans are coming nowhere close to closing the gap.

The D's had an 83,800 vote gap the last time, at the end.  I have no question that Obama will carry Clark Co., but it might be a greatly reduced rate. 

I'd really be waiting until the weekend for solid trends.

And, the gap has been decreasing slightly. 

McCain didn't push early voting they way Romney has.  More Republicans are voting before election day.  That doesn't necessarily mean more Republicans voting overall.

[Skill and Chance]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

The question, though, is how many of these additional early voters the R's are turning out were election day McCain voters in 2008?  It is well noted that the Romney campaign has emphasized early voting much more than McCain did.

[Skill and Chance]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

The question, though, is how many of these additional early voters the R's are turning out were election day McCain voters in 2008?  It is well noted that the Romney campaign has emphasized early voting much more than McCain did.

In Iowa both sides are cannibalizing their election day turnout. Turnout is very consistent in Iowa elections so we already know how many people are going to vote; it's just a matter of when.

Precisely my point.  That leaves fewer Republicans and more Democrats in the pool on election day than in 2008.

[Skill and Chance]

I mean, if early voting ended today for some reason and we only led by 62k then that wouldn't be great. But there are five more days to go.

Obviously, I mean if EaV concluded with Democrats ahead 62K. We'll see what the final margin is. But you shouldn't count on last-minute swings towards your candidate. Pretty sure that's one of J.J.'s rules, isn't it?

No, and you can get last minute swings.  The thing is that the share of the electoral that the D's are holding has been declining.

The question, though, is how many of these additional early voters the R's are turning out were election day McCain voters in 2008?  It is well noted that the Romney campaign has emphasized early voting much more than McCain did.

In Iowa both sides are cannibalizing their election day turnout. Turnout is very consistent in Iowa elections so we already know how many people are going to vote; it's just a matter of when.

Precisely my point.  That leaves fewer Republicans and more Democrats in the pool on election day than in 2008.

Well, yes, but in 2008 Democrats  had an edge of over 100,000 voters. Thus, they build a 90k edge in early voting and still were nearly even on election day. In 2012 the Republicans have an edge of 10,000 voters.

But where did the 100K go?  They were probably indies who wanted to caucus for Obama or Hillary in 2008.  Many of them would also want to caucus for Romney or Santorum this time around, knowing that Obama was unchallenged.

[Skill and Chance]

NC early vote still moves heavily old and Republican! Half the vote is in.


D: 996299 (48.3%)
R: 654125 (31.8%)
I: 407651 (19.8%)

W: 1389593 (67.4%)
B: 572984 (27.8%)
O: 99619 (4.8%)

Oct 29, 2008:

D: 1006355 (53.2%)
R: 551056 (29.1%)
I: 332506 (17.6%)

W: 1299945 (68.7%)
B: 515112 (27.2%)
O: 75940 (4.0%)


This must be this ground game big talk. Less Democrats are voting and Romney is creating more and more new Republican whites. People over 45 make up 70% of the vote. Huzzah!

More surging by the Republican party!


Nov 1, 2012:

D: 1083235 (48.0%)
R: 718559 (31.9%)
O: 451494 (20.0%)

W: 1528802 (67.8%)
B: 618752 (27.4%)
O: 110362 (4.9%)

Oct 30, 2008:

D: 1118195 (52.5%)
R: 630585 (29.6%)
I: 379666 (17.9%)

W: 1472676 (69.1%)
B: 570460 (26.8%)
O: 86603 (4.1%)

NC is probably gone.  I'd still want to know how many of the other 4-5% were McCain Dixiecrats, though.  The fact that the electorate in a big state is coming in at least 1% more diverse than 2008 is a good sign for Obama nationally.

[Skill and Chance]

All Obama Counties in Tennessee

2008: 36,144
2012: 25,317

Change: -30%

All McCain Counties in Tennessee (except Henry which has not reported 2012EV totals):

2008: 71,846
2012: 94,588

Change: +31.7%

From here that included links to the TN SoS official early voting data:
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/330857/dramatic-shifts-early-voting-tennessee-north-carolina

Further supports my expectation of a 2:1 Romney win here.

[Skill and Chance]

Considering that I live in a state without early voting, I really do not see how this is suppression, especially since every voter was sent an absentee ballot application. 

That's because it's NOT suppression. Early voting is an expanse of the right to vote by the individual states. The states have the right to set the places and manner of the election, so long as the regular vote is scheduled for the first Tuesday in November.

To really ensure fairness, the rules would all need to be set federally.  See Canada, where they use a uniform bilingual ballot format across all of the provinces for federal offices.  Voting procedure, ideally, should be standardized across the states in federal elections.  For governor and state legislature, they can do as they please.

[Skill and Chance]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

What conclusion might you draw from that, taken along with your observation that Republican early turnout is significantly higher than in 2008? Recall that Obama stressed early voting in both elections, while Republicans only stressed it this election.

Yep, those 2008 election day McCain voters are really getting out the early vote this year.

[Skill and Chance]

Isn't +2 worse than the Republicans did in the 2010 early vote? A year in which they lost the governor and senate races?

Yes.  2010 was R+6 in the early vote.  Republicans did pick up some statewide offices and flip a chamber of the state legislature, though.  So from the data we have, D+6 early vote = 9-10 point D win statewide, R+6 early vote = effective tie statewide.  If this was the only information we had, I would go with Obama +3-4 statewide with an R+2 early vote.  Johnson is probably taking some Obama votes here, though.

[Skill and Chance]

Near final Cuyathoga numbers.

2012: 249,403
2008(on Tuesday, not total processed): 252,629

Franklin Numbers

2012: 222,068
2008:207,243

Interesting.  So EV turnout is statistically equal to 2008 after all.