In 20 years (user search)
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Author Topic: In 20 years  (Read 2700 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: January 17, 2012, 04:49:04 PM »
« edited: January 17, 2012, 06:31:56 PM by Skill and Chance »

Since this isn't exactly an era of optimism, here's an idea:

Early in 2032, a new generation of Americans prepares to vote in their first presidential election.  In their lifetimes, these new voters have never seen an incumbent president re-elected.  Nor have they ever seen an unemployment rate below 8%.  They have watched both parties disintegrate as the US defaulted on its sovereign debt and they now enjoy barely half the standard of living of their parents 20 years earlier.  At the height of the crisis in 2029, the real value of a US dollar declines by a factor of 10 in one month.

Those seeking renewal have turned inward.  New coalitions are formed, less out of partisanship than as an appeal to the bedrock values that once made America great as the last, best hope to restore its glory.  Social issues fade entirely from the scene as legislators work together to regain control of the economy. The coalitions organize along broadly populist and libertarian lines, appealing respectively to Justice and Freedom.  The election of 2032 becomes one of the closest contests in American history.



Coalition for Freedom: Marco Rubio (FL-Sen)/Jim Himes (CT-Gov) 48.93%
Coalition for Justice: Terri Sewell (AL-Gov)/Lee Terry (NE-Sen) 48.87%

House: Justice 254/Freedom 181
Senate: Justice 54/Freedom 46

Narrow victories in CA, TX and FL give Rubio a surprisingly large margin in the electoral college, but a better geographic distribution of votes gives Justice a majority in congress.
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Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,811
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2012, 07:16:04 PM »
« Edited: January 18, 2012, 03:55:59 PM by Skill and Chance »

Prologue: Fall 2012

The stars seemed to have aligned for President Obama.  After a turbulent 4 years in office he had seen several foreign policy victories and the unemployment rate had fallen to 8.1% by September.  Two weeks before the election, polling indicated a narrow victory over Mitt Romney for the incumbent: 50% to 47% on average.  Painting Romney as out of touch with a populist message, he enjoyed small leads in OH and PA, but some of his new conquests from 2008 looked far shakier.

Then disaster struck for the Obama campaign with the new jobs report the Friday before the election: on net, not a single new job had been created during the month of October.  Romney pounced on the news and announced a $25 million "President Zero" ad buy to air during primetime television in all the Midwestern swing states the weekend before the election.  It was just enough for Romney to make up ground and carry the night with OH, PA and WI. 



Romney 49.2%  287 EV
Obama  48.8%   251 EV
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