Which states do you see moving left or right over the next 20 years and why?

[Skill and Chance]

So something like this?

That's a prohibitive D win unless CA and NY/New England lose like half their population.

[Skill and Chance]

Dark Blue = hard right
Light Blue = soft right
Grey =  no trend
Light Red = soft left
Red = hard left

2032 State leans:

Explanations:

HI: Remains a strong Dem state.  Life doesn't change much out here

AK: Becomes more Republican as the Republicans become more libertarian.

CA/OR/WA: The Dems haven't peaked here yet, but there are only so many new votes to win
AZ/NV/CO/NM: Changing demographics produce rapid Dem gains.  CO in particular has all of the right changes to become a core Dem state in 20 years.

TX: The GOP here has shown that they have the organizational strength to reach out and win over Hispanic voters.  Dems will make only modest gains from demographic change.

UT: Also feels demographic change and moves to the left.  It remains a GOP state, but Democrats can win statewide offices in a 2006/08 environment.

MT/ID/WY: Continue moving to the GOP due to the importance of fossil fuels/mining.

ND/SD/NE/MN/IA: All of these Northern Plains states initially move to the right then drift back to the left as wind energy and biofuels gain importance.

OK/KS: I see no reason for a trend here.

WI/MO/IL/MI/IN/OH/PA: Urban and industrial/union decline = GOP gains.

LA/MS/AL/AR/KY/TN/KY/WV: Demographics strongly favor the new GOP here.  TN could eventually move back to the center.

FL: Demographic changes slightly favor the Dems, but GOP organizational skills should more than offset this.

GA/NC:  Will soon turn into southern enclaves of Maryland, and in neither state does the local GOP have the institutional strength to avoid being overwhelmed.

MD/DE/VA: The DC area continues moving left. The effect is most dramatic in VA where NOVA can now outvote everyone else.  It becomes a core Dem state by 2030.

NJ/NY: The Dems are almost certainly maxed out here.  Turner is a sign of things to come.

CT/RI/MA/VT/NH/ME:   The GOP focus on economic issues will eventually soften up New England.  RI in particular does not have the right demographics to remain a Democratic stronghold.

[Skill and Chance]

Here's a guess at 2052.

[Skill and Chance]

In terms of left/right politics, almost every state could move left. However, in Atlas-sense trends (swings relative to the national swing), every trend in one direction must be countered by a trend of equal size in the opposite direction somewhere else.

I think there are a couple of distinct possibilities. One is Hispanics becoming "white" and voting close to the national average. The other is Hispanics remaining a distinct minority and continuing to vote strongly Democratic, while non-Hispanic whites trend Republican in opposition. In the former scenario, the electoral map remains quite similar to how it is now. In the latter, we see maps similar to in these threads, with Democratic trends in the West countered by Republican trends in the Midwest and Northeast (but mainly the former).

There will quite likely be a realignment based on whoever is in charge when unemployment finally gets back to 6%.  The other party will need to develop a new coalition: ex. Democrats reaching out to rural voters on opposition to GOP budget cuts or Republicans dramatically increasing minority outreach using social issues.