Is Obama unstoppable?

[Skill and Chance]

He would have to suffer a quarter of negative GDP growth between now and the election to lose.  That's not unstoppable, but he is the odds-on favorite at the moment.

[Skill and Chance]

The Republicans need either a recession or a genius nominee.  They definitely don't have a genius right now.

[Skill and Chance]

The Republicans need either a recession or a genius nominee.  They definitely don't have a genius right now.

Well, I'd qualify that as 'if the economy doesn't blow up again by Nov. 2012' since the real unemployment figures are obviously in the teens right now.  However, as it stands now I'd say too early to tell for once. The GOP field looks weak and his approvals are simply mediocre (if very heavily racially skewed) as opposed to god awful.

And what were Bush's approvals among white Evangelicals?  Probably over 75%, even in 2008.  Did Kennedy ever fall below 90% approval among Catholic voters?  Identity politics isn't confined to just one subset of the population, you know.

[Skill and Chance]

Nope. Recent polls show the mid-term/Tucson glow fading: http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&rlz=1C1DVCK_enAU396&tbs=nws:1&q=obama+polls&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=

The economy is weak, with still near-10% unemployment officially- and large numbers of defacto unemployed mean the real number is about 20%(http://sandiegonewsroom.com/news/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=43261:how-accurate-is-the-federal-unemployment-rate-&catid=230:economy&Itemid=261). If it doesn't fall below 8%  come election time, he will be favored against someone like Palin and competitive against someone like Gingrich, but Romney/Huckabee/*insert non-crazy dark horse* will have a pretty easy time of it methinks.

And my gut feeling through observing the general global instability presently is that he'll be unlikely to pass through the next two years without serious foreign humiliation. He's had embarrasments so far(Copenhagen, missing withdrawal deadline for Iraq war), but no humiliation yet- don't expect that lucky streak to continue.

Public sector unions are coming under attack in important Midwestern states, which will weaken the Democratic organization in those states, while Citizens United continues to present the Republicans with a sizable boon.

I think most Americans are quite happy about what is happening in the Middle East right now.  That could change if oil prices skyrocket, of course, but how you can possibly call the overthrow of several unamerican and undemocratic dictators anything other than a big foreign policy victory for America is beyond me. 

As for unemployment, it is undoubtedly a huge issue and is abnormally high right now.  That being said, in economist's terms, the end of a recession normally corresponds with the peak in unemployment, not the recovery of unemployment.  And that near 20% number you are citing (U6), rarely drops below 10%, even in major economic booms.