Skill and Chance
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« on: January 21, 2011, 09:42:10 PM » |
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History suggests that re-elected presidents should win bigger the second time around. If he wins, 56-41 would seem a lot more likely than 50-48. I could see a narrow Bush 2004 style win with the president taking CO+NV+VA, which is probably what would happen if the election was today, but I think a big, 400+ EV win would be more likely. If the election is narrow, he probably wins though because of the Dem advantage in the electoral college. The GOP could win the PV with Obama still carrying Kerry+IA+NM+NV+CO or Kerry+NM+IA+VA for the EV win.
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