Skill and Chance
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« on: December 12, 2010, 02:22:58 PM » |
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If we define close election as an election with a closer popular vote margin than 2008, the most likely one by far would be AZ. Without McCain on the ballot, AZ probably only votes 3 or 4 points right of the nation with presidential turnout. The 2012 Republican would have to win bigger than Obama did in 2008 to maintain McCain's margin in the state. That's not to say that Obama has any chance of winning AZ in a close election, but he won't be getting under 45% there.
Also, I could definitely see VA voting left of the national PV in 2012, but it would have to be really dramatic to be a "swing" toward him relative to 2008 if the 2012 election is a closer one.
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