Incidentally, in a related thread there was some discussion of which "toss-up" states may not really be "toss-ups". I was using 3% as a cut-off. That is, if an average of recent polls shows a candidate up by 3-5% in a given state, it is a non-toss-up toss-up. The lead is less than 5%, satisfying most people's definition of a toss-up, but it is substantial and/or consistent enough such that the candidate in the lead probably really does have a few percentage point lead.
I mention this because, using the poll average over the past month, this latest poll brings the Michigan average to Kerry +3%. One poll, of course, doesn't dictate. So, no one can say with
certainty whether or not Michigan is a toss-up now. But, I would argue that it is not. It is very close, but not a tossup.
