VA could go to Kerry, MUCH better chance than Illimois going Bush.
I agree that the VA-IL comparison is silly. An average of polls over the last month and a half shows:
Illinois = Kerry +12.5%
Virginia = Bush +5.7%
And for those that think looking back a full month and a half is too far, there is only one poll in each state around a month and a half old... both were more Bush favorable. So, ignoring those two polls gives Kerry an even larger lead in IL and closes the gap slightly in VA.
Yes, one can choose to not believe some of the polls (like the questionable Rasmussen polls), which would aid Bush - particularly in VA. But one can also argue, for various reasons, that Kerry is more likely to do better than his poll numbers (Nader-faders and undecided break). But just looking at the numbers straight-up, with no subjectivity at all, VA and IL aren't comparable.
In fact, the poll-average in MN is Kerry +6%. So, MN and VA are
very similar. Any Dems that argue that MN is safe, but Kerry should go after VA are fooling themselves. And vice-versa, any Reps who think Bush should target MN, but Kerry has no chance in VA are delusional. Frankly, with all of the much closer states (WI, OR, PA, NM, etc) I think both candidates have bigger fish to fry, and should not even try for MN or VA unless/until things change.
And as for IL, there are few safer states for Kerry (MA, CT, RI, NY).
