Reagan boost?

[millwx]

New Pew Research poll shows Bush up 4% in a three way race... 46% to 42% to 6%... and up 2% head to head... 48% to 46%.  While it is not overwhelmingly so, it is just about the strongest performance by Bush in a national poll in about a month (a couple other polls are quite close).  Interestingly, this poll is the only one I've seen whose timeframe overwhelming covers the "week of remembrance" for Reagan... the poll was conducted June 3rd through 13th.

The recent TIPP poll was close to the same dates, but missed the first couple of days following Reagan's death.  It showed Bush up 3% in a three way race and up 1% head-to-head.

Of other recent polls... Fox/OD was closer (tied with Nader in, Kerry up head-to-head), AP/IPSOS was closer (Bush up 1% in a three way race), Gallup had Kerry up, Zogby had Kerry up slightly, ARG had Kerry up slightly, Quinnipiac had it essentially tied, ABC/WP had a tie or Kerry up, CBS had Kerry up, Greenberg-Quinlan-Rosner had Kerry up.  ALL of these were conducted within a few weeks prior to the death of Reagan except for Fox/OD and AP/IPSOS which were right at the front end of that week... interesting that they sit between the more Kerry-friendly polls pre-Reagan-death and the Pew and TIPP polls conducted largely during the "week of remembrance".

Seems clear to me, morbid as it might be, that Bush has launched upwards a few points on Reagan's death.  And, obviously, this'll be reflected in some of the state polls as well.  So, it's a pretty big deal.  The question is... Will it last or will it fade?

[millwx]

I bought Bush 10 days of "space" to let the media frenzy cool off, and let the American people reflect.

I'm not sure why that would help Bush (I understand the argument, I just can't see people shifting over that... of course, we're only talking about 2-4% of the people shifting).  But, I have no good answer myself, so you may well be right.  No matter, he's clearly gotten a boost.  Will it hold?  I suspect not, since the news has already turned on Bush again... bombing of the Iraqi pipelines, car bomb killing 35 in Iraq, 9/11 commission declaring no definitive Al Qaeda-Iraq link, etc.  I'm not saying it's being reported fairly (good economic news continues to get "below the fold" billing), I'm just saying that what's being reported is generally negative.