Nigerian Presidential Election, February 25, 2023

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

From what I've seen there's some pretty wild cases of voter intimidation and fraud from the APC but Obi seems likely to prevail regardless.

EDIT: some examples:

https://twitter.com/SavvyRinu/status/1629474797003350016

https://twitter.com/Charles91253085/status/1629473916384059393

https://twitter.com/Msmenalicious/status/1629481654405177346

https://twitter.com/IgweOdyssey/status/1629487832770179072

https://twitter.com/Wisdomoriginal_/status/1629483097216385025

https://twitter.com/TaofiqSz/status/1629485814089494531

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https://twitter.com/his_victorious/status/1629588716946694144

If this is accurate it looks like Obi wins the first round thanks to a dominant performance in the south but won't avoid a runoff. EDIT: Just a preelection poll, or possibly an exit poll. We'll see how it matches up the actual results...

More crazy videos from the election:

https://twitter.com/omoelerinjare/status/1629535571667218434

https://twitter.com/Iykayofficial/status/1629510708424581123

https://twitter.com/SavvyRinu/status/1629442233026871297

https://twitter.com/SavvyRinu/status/1629582183860953088

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

finally found what seems to be a decent source of the results counted up to this point by independent collators

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Abia just came in as a Obi lanslide.  Still that just moves the numbers using my formal+informal numbers to

APC   ~41%
LP     ~22%
PDP   ~30%

There are not enough super pro-Obi states out there to close the gap especially when there are a bunch of other anti-Obi states out there with few results in.

I'm not sure about that. By my (extremely oversimplified) count of the uncounted and partially counted states you have

Igbo Core (very pro-Obi, 70%+):
Anambra
Imo
Abia
Ebonyi

Christian/Animist Majority/Plurality (quite pro-Obi, 45-70%):
Edo
Delta
Bayelsa
Benue
Plateau
FCT

Significant Christian/Animist Minority (somewhat pro-Obi, 15-45%):
Taraba
Nasarawa
Kaduna
Kogi
Cross River
Rivers
Akwa Ibom

No Significant Christian/Animist Minority (or they're Yoruba) (anti-Obi, <15%):
Sokoto
Kebbi
Zamfara
Niger
Kano
Bauchi
Borno

Whereas of the 13 fully counted states, 11 fall into the "anti-Obi" bucket. Even so, he won Lagos and pulled over 90% in Enugu with higher turnout when turnout (seems to be) down across the north, two very good signs for him. The partial results from the swingier central states seem pretty favourable for Obi as well, though of course that could change as more come in.

Still, if I were to put money on it I'd guess Obi at least makes the runoff, but with such low turnout any province with anomalously high turnout could dramatically change things.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Hold on, my understanding was that you need 25% of the vote in 25 of 36 states and a majority of the popular vote. While Tinubu's even vote distribution makes the first condition a near certainty and he's very likely to ultimately come first, it looks nigh impossible for him to win an outright majority and avoid a runoff.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Hold on, my understanding was that you need 25% of the vote in 25 of 36 states and a majority of the popular vote. While Tinubu's even vote distribution makes the first condition a near certainty and he's very likely to ultimately come first, it looks nigh impossible for him to win an outright majority and avoid a runoff.

Me too but I think it is plurality and majority.  I think I thought that is that the last few elections the winner always won an absolute majority so the plurality vs majority was never tested, until this election, of course.

(2) A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election-

(a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election;

and

(b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
More: https://jurist.ng/constitution/sec-134

You're right. Once again Wikipedia's incorrect wording has led a poor soul astray.

Still, in theory Atiku could still overtake Tinubu in the popular vote without hitting the statewide vote threshold while Obi could narrowly win the most states, creating a PDP-LP runoff. Not likely, mind, but still possible.

As things stand (ignoring crazy outlier states or legal challenges) Tinubu is on track for the weakest victory of any Nigerian President since 1979, not a great omen for things to come

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I can't find any good live odds on this--is anyone aware of any? Or does anyone want to provide their subjective view of the odds that Tinubu wins outright/runoff/something more unexpected?

Assuming nothing gets overturned or redone Tinubu is very, very likely to win outright, but by the narrowest margin imaginable. By my extremely oversimplified math and comparing with the officially certified results to this point adjusted by total state population, Obi is tracking to net around 1.6 million votes from the core Igbo states, which would get him just past Atiku, plus anywhere from a few hundred thousand to just under 2 million from the non-Yoruba Christian and Animist states, which could, optimistically, narrowly put him above Tinubu. The problem is that then there are six outstanding anti-Obi states left likely to subtract 1-2 million votes from that margin, plus three "swing" states that are likely to be close and won't impact the margin much.

Excluding legal or extralegal intervention basically everything would have to go wrong in the outstanding states for Tinubu to be forced to a runoff by either candidate since neither is hitting the 25% requirement to avoid a runoff even if they somehow won the popular vote. To give a number I'd go 90% Tinubu wins outright, 7% Obi forces a runoff with Tinubu, 3% Atiku forces a runoff with Obi.

Of course there are some pretty legitimate cases of election fraud that could be used to justify reruns. While probably not the worst example, the most absurd might be in Akwa Ibom, where fake election officials escorted by fake soldiers and fake policemen went from poll to poll breaking in and sabotaging the results.