2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

Some of it sounds like a sequel to "promiscuous populism"--like, that which made the town of Essex, normally a NDP stronghold, go for the Canadian Alliance during the NDP's low ebb of 2000.

But what I'm also finding upon initial glimpses is that PPC also tended to overperform in the advance polls--in CKL, they won one for Leamington, and almost won one for Wheatley.  And you find that advance overperformance in such places as the Mennonite strongholds in Manitoba--and in fact, PPC *won* the Group 2 Special Voting Rules balloting in Portage-Lisgar...

Besides the Mennonites the other demographic that the PPC did oddly well with are Francophones outside of Québec. They actually won Val Gagné and Matachewan in Timmins-James Bay outright and the rest of their best polls in northern Ontario seem to generally be in Francophone areas. They also beat the Conservatives in many Francophone areas in Beauséjour, Acadie-Bathurst and Madawaska-Restigouche.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

Some of it sounds like a sequel to "promiscuous populism"--like, that which made the town of Essex, normally a NDP stronghold, go for the Canadian Alliance during the NDP's low ebb of 2000.

But what I'm also finding upon initial glimpses is that PPC also tended to overperform in the advance polls--in CKL, they won one for Leamington, and almost won one for Wheatley.  And you find that advance overperformance in such places as the Mennonite strongholds in Manitoba--and in fact, PPC *won* the Group 2 Special Voting Rules balloting in Portage-Lisgar...

Besides the Mennonites the other demographic that the PPC did oddly well with are Francophones outside of Québec. They actually won Val Gagné and Matachewan in Timmins-James Bay outright and the rest of their best polls in northern Ontario seem to generally be in Francophone areas. They also beat the Conservatives in many Francophone areas in Beauséjour, Acadie-Bathurst and Madawaska-Restigouche.

Val Gagné is not Francophone, but Mennonite.

Ah yes, you're right, there's actually an Old Order Mennonite church there.

Still, just looking at towns with the highest proportion of Francophones in Ontario going down the PPC overperformed in Hearst (94% Francophone), Moonbeam (84%), Hawkesbury (79%), Alfred and Plantagenet (74%), Smooth Rock Falls (71%) and Kapuskasing (70%).

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

Some of it sounds like a sequel to "promiscuous populism"--like, that which made the town of Essex, normally a NDP stronghold, go for the Canadian Alliance during the NDP's low ebb of 2000.

But what I'm also finding upon initial glimpses is that PPC also tended to overperform in the advance polls--in CKL, they won one for Leamington, and almost won one for Wheatley.  And you find that advance overperformance in such places as the Mennonite strongholds in Manitoba--and in fact, PPC *won* the Group 2 Special Voting Rules balloting in Portage-Lisgar...

Besides the Mennonites the other demographic that the PPC did oddly well with are Francophones outside of Québec. They actually won Val Gagné and Matachewan in Timmins-James Bay outright and the rest of their best polls in northern Ontario seem to generally be in Francophone areas. They also beat the Conservatives in many Francophone areas in Beauséjour, Acadie-Bathurst and Madawaska-Restigouche.

Maybe we can chalk that up to Bernier's semi-unique position as a Francophone bringing a message geared towards non-urban and non-Quebec Canadians.

Definitely possible. If that's the case the days of Charlie Angus could be numbered when Poilievre becomes Tory leader.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Another oddity, this time in the northern QC riding of Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou.

For some reason minor parties but especially the Marijuana Party did unusually well in the Inuit polls. Maybe the funniest poll result came from Tasiujaq's poll 11, where the Conservatives managed to come sixth behind the FPC, the PPC and the Marijuana party. It isn't just a weird artifact of low turnout or LPC/NDP dominance like some other unexpected results from reserves; the latter three combined would have actually tied for first with the Liberals.