The SC Election Day & Results Thread

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The bad weather, and everything I've heard from the ground so far, would indicate that Gingrich and Paul are going to do better than expected while Romney and Santorum will do poorer than expected.

My "on the ground" people were right last time at least, so maybe they'll be right this time too. Common sense would indicate that Gingrich's strong anti-Romney base and Paul's dedicated supporters are more willing to stroll through a downpour than Romney or Santorum supporters, but I guess we'll see.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The bad weather, and everything I've heard from the ground so far, would indicate that Gingrich and Paul are going to do better than expected while Romney and Gingrich will do poorer than expected.

Gingrich will do both better than worse than expected?

sh**t, I meant to say Santorum. Whoops!

Editing.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The bad weather, and everything I've heard from the ground so far, would indicate that Gingrich and Paul are going to do better than expected while Romney and Santorum will do poorer than expected.

My "on the ground" people were right last time at least, so maybe they'll be right this time too. Common sense would indicate that Gingrich's strong anti-Romney base and Paul's dedicated supporters are more willing to stroll through a downpour than Romney or Santorum supporters, but I guess we'll see.

Who are "your people" and how can I meet them?

My top secret on-the-ground sources who give me hot tips, you know, from the ground.

I didn't have them in Iowa and they were right on in New Hampshire, so I guess we'll have to see whether they're right. If they are, Romney should be well behind Gingrich, Paul should overperform, and Santorum should be well behind Paul. If they aren't, I'll be very sad that they were wrong and will have to basically make wild guesses as to the results in the later primaries.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Whats the exit polling (if any) saying about Ron Paul?

Independents are apparently 26% of the vote, while ARG predicted 24% and PPP predicted 18% (I think). That probably benefits him.

Also more men than women, also good for him.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Just saw a pro-SOPA ad on CNN. Never seen one of those before.

A bit late for that, I think.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

FOX just called the race for Gingrich. Romney in second.

But the actual results aren't even in yet by so much as 0.01%

Oh well, its probably true

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Poor night for Paul it seems, but I'm happy that 15% in SC is considered a bad night, shows how far Paul has come. I'd be very happy if he got above Santorum.

This is a CNN exit poll. They also put Paul 1st in Iowa. They aren't exactly the last word on these things (though a Santorum 3rd wouldn't exactly be an unbelievable event)

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

With 1% reporting:

Gingrich: 36%
Romney: 36%
Santorum: 15%
Paul: 6%

Notably, though, Gingrich and Romney only lead Paul and Perry by 12 votes

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

It goes to Paul with 11%, and then back to Santorum with 13%

This is pretty fun actually

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

MSNBC and Fox will have to retract their calls.

With 0.1% reporting

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

CNN projects Gingrich winner.

Is he no longer behind?

You don't understand how this works, do you? It doesn't matter who's "ahead" with less than 1% of votes counted.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Speaking further to the delusion of Paultards, a friend of mine posted on Facebook this morning that the "Christians" (yes, in quotes) helped split the vote in the "bastion of Evangelicaloids" that is South Carolina to allow Paul to take third place last night. Now never mind the fact that the man is clearly in fourth and was clearly in fourth for almost the entire evening...

You have to admit, South Carolina (and Florida will be too) never was prime Paul territory by any means, he just got a small bump from around 6% to 15% from a decent New Hampshire performance. You didn't see me talking about the death of Santorum and the delusional-ness of his supporters after getting 10% in New Hampshire, since New Hampshire clearly isn't a state that Santorum is geared towards.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

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*Tied a state

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Well that's sure picking and choosing. So if the election was between Santorum and a horde of libertarians and the fight was all in a state like North Dakota, Santorum would be the "loser" because he didn't contest a state he couldn't win?

Also, despite this, MY guy is ahead of your guy in actual votes so far

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

Ron Paul: 160,877
Rick Santorum: 155,256

Whoops!

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

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If you bothered to check even a couple of my posts, you would find that when it was said Romney "won" by eight votes I called it a tie, and when Santorum "won" by 35 I still called it is a tie. This is because anyone with the remotest understanding of statistics knows that when the results are that close, calling it either way is silly since human error will account for more lost ballots than that. It's already been said that eight precincts were off and over a hundred had somewhat incorrect tallies. Calling it anything other than a "tie" is silly.

In all practical terms, when its that close, recounts (unless they find a thousand vote discrepancy or something) are worthless at that stage. They may as well flip a coin. But the media needs to treat politics like a sports game so they pick the arbitrary winner.

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My guy will be winning several more contests than yours, who is due to be dropping out shortly. Furthermore, thus far, my guy has more delegates than yours and is due to be winning more from Iowa than yours too (seeing as how the "victory" you're bragging about is a non-binding straw poll)

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Nah, even after Florida odds are he'll still be ahead, and after Nevada there isn't any practical chance he'll lose his lead. Furthermore, Paul will still be ahead in delegates because he presently has three pledged delegates, whereas Santorum only has one. Even if Santorum did exceptional in the Florida primary, he's never going to win and thus gets no delegates out of the deal.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

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The straw poll is what he won, not the actual election (Which occurs quite a while from now). With 25%-25%-21%, the delegates would be split up 7-7-7 going directly by percentages (were it a higher difference than it would be different), and could go anywhere later on. However, seeing as how Santorum will likely have long since dropped out by the time of the delegate selection stage (or will have lost relevance to Gingrich, who his state convention delegates will back), AND that Paul's supporters notably stuck around to vote in the actual binding vote rather than the straw poll, makes it seem very unlikely that Santorum will come ahead in terms of delegates.

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He's not contesting the state, but Gingrich is and Gingrich is eating Santorum's support. I still think Santorum will come third, but I like how you think being ahead in actual votes over the course of exactly one primary before falling (and staying) behind for the entire remainder of the election is a success.

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"ACTUALLY READING POSTS IS FOR LOSERS, UNBACKED ASSUMPTIONS FTW!"

Again, when the count is that close, its a "tie" and miniscule difference is irrelevant. If you bothered to get even a basic understanding of statistics you'd understand that pretty quickly. I said it was a tie even when Romney was said to have won, so stop lying already.