Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,333
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« on: January 01, 2012, 11:59:07 PM » |
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REBOUND MOMENTUM FOR PAUL
(Not serious)
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Okay. I'm sticking to what I was saying earlier.
Polling caucuses is insanely tricky, so this will all come down to voter turnout and last minute decisions by soft support. I don't have a damn clue how it'll turn out; Paul has easily the best organization and his base is the most fanatical, but his younger/poorer/independenter supporters also have the lowest traditional turnout, Santorum has the worst organization of the three (Not intended as an attack, he just doesn't have the cash and is unlikely to do much from his truck), but his base of support (social cons) is the most traditionally reliable and Romney is between the two with his elderly and upper class support.
I'm going with the gut feeling that Paul's going to triumph here. Everything I've heard from Iowa indicates he has an excellent campaign apparatus, and he has far more area to expand to (Romney is unlikely to get more seniors or wealthy to show up then are already coming, Santorum could conceivably get more evangelicals but some of his old reputation as well as his Catholic faith prevent him from becoming Huckabee), with lots and lots of potential independent/Democratic backup if his campaign does things correctly.
Of course, anything is possible for the top three right now. Since I'm no welcher, though, I'm sticking to my "if Santorum wins I'm making an apology to Phil and leaving the forum" promise.
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