"recent surge in the polls"
There's not such a surge, it's the media creating an alternative to Romney or Paul FROM NOTHING.
Why do you think that suspiciously the media discovered Santorum ?
From nothing? So the poll numbers are totally made up? I mean, even if you throw out the polls that only surveyed Republicans (OMG CONSPIRACY AGAINST DR. PAUL!!!), Santorum was rising.
Well, from what I've seen, there was one from an unreliable pollster that only polled Republicans that had Santorum in second, and there was one from CNN that (again, only polling Republicans) showed him a ways behind Paul and Romney in third. There was a Marist poll that shows him doing well in third.
That by no means constitutes a surge that can win Santorum the caucus. For sure, he's getting his time in the sun if that's what you mean; the media is getting pretty desperate, seeing as how it has run out of viable options to pump up after pumping up every single other candidate (barring Paul, who they detest). Were Stalin to be resurrected as a zombie in the US and jump into the race, the media would pump him up as a "tough guy" with a "war record" and he would start polling near the front.
This is basically up in the air between Paul and Romney (Santorum will make an effect, but winning with hype this late in the game is effectively impossible), and it'll come down to the caucus speeches changing minds at the last minute as well as independent turnout. It'll also depend on whether the bulk of the undecided voters swing towards Paul or Romney (or Santorum, though from what I've seen his base doesn't really detract from either of the main two so much as rob the various sideshow acts of their already limited support).
