Bloomberg: Four Way Dead Heat in Iowa

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-15/romney-two-way-race-is-now-four-way-republican-dead-heat-in-iowa-caucuses.html

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So, if Paul wins (even with 20%), does media finally start taking him seriously? He's a serious guy with serious ideas. Not my ideology, putting it mildly, but it's real. Which is more than most of the wacky GOP field that CNN or whoever treats like serious people.

"Mitt Romney comes close second in Iowa, Gingrich third, Paul also performs!"

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Turnout gave Paul a sizable advantage over the polls in caucus states. IIRC he performed 3% better than what the most favourable poll said he would in Iowa and moreso in states like Washington, Montana, North Dakota. It probably makes the most sense to assume Paul will perform a bit better than the polls say in caucus states, and maybe a little worse in primary states (unless he wins Iowa, isn't marginalized out of existence, and gains the momentum to put up a fight against Romney, in which case he might do good in primary states too)

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Let's wait for another poll that shows Paul anywhere near this high before we start taking this guy seriously, folks.

"Let's wait for another poll that shows Obama beating Clinton before we start taking this seriously, folks"

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The phone call frequency is increasing.  I got two, count 'em two, calls from Ron Paul's people yesterday.  And I'm up to about two pieces of Ron Paul junkmail per week now.

Honestly, though, I don't see as many PAUL signs out and about as last time.  I guess people had more discretionary income at that time, and could afford the enormous yardsigns.

The serious Republicans I know all still like Mitt.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Romney win my precinct and Paul come in second, which is exactly what happened last time.  Not that my precinct is particularly representative of the state.

Paul's campaign is very different this year. People are poorer from the recession so he's not rolling in moneybomb cash, but the campaign isn't floundering around like a dead fish and throwing money at retarded ads. It actually has phonebanks, canvasses, polls, town halls, etc rather than blimps and snowballs being thrown at Hannity.

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Paul isn't that much of a jump. A lot of the BCPG supporters (ignoring their bedrock of maybe 3% each or so) just go for them because the media builds them up as the candidate of the month and then brings them down with scandals. Were Paul that candidate, most would be okay with it (especially considering one of the biggest reasons many Republicans don't support him is because they think he can't win). Anyway, going by these polls he has the least amount of people absolutely refusing to back him besides Romney, so there's that.