Advice for President Obama

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Frankly, assuming Romney and Perry are the only two possibilities (they aren't, but for now I will assume they are), then the election comes down to Obama facing a weak opponent and hoping the economy doesn't collapse before the election (it probably will).

With Romney, he will have comparatively more crossover and a harder fight with independents, but the Republican base will be entirely unmotivated to bother helping. So if there isn't a recession that would make Palin competitive, then Romney will be forced between acting more conservative (which will probably cost him that independent appeal) or act more moderate (in which case the conservatives don't bother voting, or, in a worst case scenario, go third party).

With Perry, he will motivate the conservatives (the tea party maybe, he has a lot of weaknesses in that sense so it's unlikely he'll get them in droves) but the moderates will detest him. He has even less of a chance at victory than Romney, but a big recession could still give him victory.

In short, Obama's reelection almost entirely hinges on factors he can't control (or rather, wouldn't be allowed to control). It would be a different story if Cain, Paul, or Bachmann were nominated, if only because they have different appeals.