IA-Selzer: Ernst +4 (user search)
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  IA-Selzer: Ernst +4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer: Ernst +4  (Read 5589 times)
DrScholl
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Posts: 18,391
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
« on: October 31, 2020, 06:06:45 PM »
Selzer's probably in a for a miss this year. Far too many undecideds this late in the game. I'm still betting that Greenfield wins.
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DrScholl
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Posts: 18,391
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2020, 06:10:16 PM »
Quote from: New Hampshirite for Kara Eastman on October 31, 2020, 06:09:11 PM



That right there is unbelievable. Independents have been Democratic leaning in most places this cycle.
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DrScholl
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Posts: 18,391
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2020, 06:13:18 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 31, 2020, 06:11:13 PM
Guys, don't waste your time picking apart the crosstabs. We all did the same thing in 2016 when Selzer had Trump +7 here. It's over.

But in 2016 most pollsters had Trump leading. This year polling is far different. This poll is an outlier.
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DrScholl
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*****
Posts: 18,391
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2020, 06:20:54 PM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on October 31, 2020, 06:16:32 PM
Quote from: DrScholl on October 31, 2020, 06:13:18 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 31, 2020, 06:11:13 PM
Guys, don't waste your time picking apart the crosstabs. We all did the same thing in 2016 when Selzer had Trump +7 here. It's over.

But in 2016 most pollsters had Trump leading. This year polling is far different. This poll is an outlier.
Quinnipiac released a poll a few days ago, showing Ernst up 2 points..

So no, it's not a outlier.

It is an outlier because we have had more polls with Greenfield leading than Ernst leading and no other poll has had Greenfield this low. 42% is way off of what other polling is showing.
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