CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[DrScholl]

I just an Elder ad where he said "Do I look like a white supremacist?". Seems worse than "I am not a witch."

It's pretty bad, but I think Christine O'Donnell having to deny that she's a witch is just more ridiculous in my opinion.

Found the ad.

It's insulting, but I don't think it's on the same level as Christine O'Donnell having to deny she's a witch. That was just absurd.

O'Donnell was more absurd, but my point really is about giving oxygen to attacks the opposition makes against you that many voters might not hear otherwise. To most voters this ad will just appear bizarre and out of nowhere because most won't know why he felt the need to say this.

[DrScholl]

How many ads for candidates in the recall are people seeing? Granted, I imagine that Republican candidates might not find it cost-efficient to spend in the Bay Area media market, but literally every television ad I've seen has been against the recall.

I've seen ads for Cox and Faulconer in addition to the ones for Elder. Southern California is definitely where Republicans are spending most of their ad money.

[DrScholl]

The post office would not deliver my ballot because I recently moved to a new apartment in the same complex. It was mailed before I could update my registration, but after I filed the change of address form for forwarding. The ballot was not forwarded, so there are very clear rules on how ballots are mailed and I seriously doubt that any and everyone is receiving a ballot. I think any chatter on Twitter is just people trying to set the stage to file lawsuits when the recall fails.

[DrScholl]

Regardless of result - I expect Newsom will survive narrowly, which is damaging enough for any national prospects he has or should be unless California Democrats are complete morons - what a complete waste of space this man is. Let's remember that he required national Democratic Party help to defeat a MEMBER OF THE GREEN PARTY in a runoff for Mayor of San Francisco. It's insane that when you perform that poorly that outside resources have to come in to boost you above a 3rd-party candidate (and there's a credible argument that the super-minority Republican Party of San Francisco are what pushed him over the top to give him the win over Gonzalez) you then become the strongest guy that can potentially be put forward to be the executive of California.

To be fair in that mayoral run off the Green Party candidate was an actually officeholder as a member of the board of supervisors. It's not like Newsom was running against a random third party perennial or something.

[DrScholl]

Regardless of result - I expect Newsom will survive narrowly, which is damaging enough for any national prospects he has or should be unless California Democrats are complete morons - what a complete waste of space this man is. Let's remember that he required national Democratic Party help to defeat a MEMBER OF THE GREEN PARTY in a runoff for Mayor of San Francisco. It's insane that when you perform that poorly that outside resources have to come in to boost you above a 3rd-party candidate (and there's a credible argument that the super-minority Republican Party of San Francisco are what pushed him over the top to give him the win over Gonzalez) you then become the strongest guy that can potentially be put forward to be the executive of California.

To be fair in that mayoral run off the Green Party candidate was an actually officeholder as a member of the board of supervisors. It's not like Newsom was running against a random third party perennial or something.

It's San Francisco! How many times did Nancy Pelosi have to get help to win a congressional election there against non-Democrats?

Local races are very different than federal and state ones. Officially the Mayor's seat is non-partisan and the elections come down to local issues. The Green Party can be competitive in local races in San Francisco in certain circumstances.

[DrScholl]

Much like I thought the anti-recall advertising is stronger in the final days. This morning I saw an anti-recall ad with Bernie Sanders and that should do a lot to get progressives to mail their ballots back.

[DrScholl]

What purpose does gridlock serve? If nothing gets done it benefits no one.

[DrScholl]

What purpose does gridlock serve? If nothing gets done it benefits no one.

Ask MA voters. There is clearly a reason one of the bluest states in the nation loves their Republican governors

I don't think Massachusetts is at a stand still because the Governor and legislature are at each other's throats. My impression of gridlock is that is that nothing at all gets done.

[DrScholl]

The easiest reform would probably be to remove the replacement option and just have the Lt. Governor take over. This would eliminate partisan motivations for recall unless there was a partisan split between Governor and Lt. Governor (not very likely these days).

[DrScholl]

The easiest reform would probably be to remove the replacement option and just have the Lt. Governor take over. This would eliminate partisan motivations for recall unless there was a partisan split between Governor and Lt. Governor (not very likely these days).

That works for Governor races, obviously the most prominent of the recalls, but CA recall law applies to the whole state. Plenty of examples of other offices getting a petition, for example the recent 2018 OC state senate recall, who lack a successor position.

The threshold could be raised for signatures and perhaps the second question on those could be eliminated and any replacement would be appointed by the governor (with the recalled politician being exempt from appointment). With that said legislative recalls rarely qualify and the one mentioned was the first state senate recall to succeed in over 100 years.

[DrScholl]

Only a two point lead in Orange County would definitely equal a decisive No vote statewide. It might not even prevail there in the end.

[DrScholl]

Talking about replacing Feinstein and flipping the majority back to Republicans is a great way to run up the No vote even more.

[DrScholl]

I'm sorry if this previously came up (this is a long thread), but something I've been wondering: will the results of the replacement question be tallied and publicly released even if the recall fails?

Yes.

[DrScholl]

With only two items on the ballot it shouldn't take results that long to come in. It would be surprising if county clerks weren't able to scan ballots very quickly.

[DrScholl]

In 2002 Davis ran a brilliant campaign to make sure that Riordan would lose the primary. He ran ads saying that Riordan was trying to be all things to all people and pretty much made him look like an indecisive flake trying to please Republicans and Democrats.

[DrScholl]

There isn't a none of these option so Elder will still carry a number of counties with odd pluralities. The variance between vote totals on the recall and the replacement questions will be wide.

[DrScholl]

We all have seen some weird stuff in ads, but that is definitely a new weird that most of us probably haven't seen. Nothing says vote yes on the recall like some bitter old man complaining about his high school years.

[DrScholl]

I keep on getting texts from gop groups telling me I haven't returneed my ballot, despite the fact that i DID weeks ago. According to the sos website, my ballot was received.

Is this something I should be worried about or do these groups send spam texts to everyone?

Only what the Secretary of State says matters. Anything else is not credible or official.

[DrScholl]

The endless cycle of not accepting results and claiming fraud is a source of huge income. Elder is not going to walk away from this empty handed and huge checks from gullible donors is far superior to actually winning the race anyway.

[DrScholl]

And that is exactly why he has been labeled a white supremacist. On top of that I cringed when he said Vice Governor of New York instead of Lieutenant Governor. Just a pet peeve of mine.

[DrScholl]

If Elder pulls the same stunts Trump did and incite violence then he is going to find out real quick that he is still black, because there are some white folks who gave Trump a pass who will not give a black man a pass.

[DrScholl]

Newsom will be making a statement right when the polls close.

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1437967394295586821?s=20

Let's hope he takes a well-deserved victory lap.

yea congrats on winning a D+30 state as a democrat

Other than fraud this will be the second most used excuse. "Oh it's a Democrat state, so it doesn't matter if our recall failed".

[DrScholl]

Newsom will be making a statement right when the polls close.

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1437967394295586821?s=20

Let's hope he takes a well-deserved victory lap.

yea congrats on winning a D+30 state as a democrat

Y'all picked this fight

And pissed away a quarter billion dollars in the process.

Let’s not talk about burning money lmao

Jamie Harrison
Amy McGrath
Sara Gideon
Beto O’rourke

Did any of those people use taxpayer money to trigger an unnecessary election?

[DrScholl]

Napa County is at 71-28 no with 62% of the estimated vote in.

[DrScholl]

The first Yes county is on the map and it's Trinity voting yes with by a rather weak 54.3% to 45.7% margin with 84% estimated votes in.

Update: Glenn is now in with 68.4% to 31.6% Yes.