WI-Marquette: Biden +3%

[DrScholl]

I could see Biden winning with Evers-type numbers.  I could even see him replicating his map more or less.

If Biden does win Wisconsin, it will probably be by about that margin. The state has gotten redder even since 2016.

Redder how? Not based on real election results. Every statewide office up in 2018 was won by a Democrats (two Republican incumbents were defeated). If anything it has gotten bluer since 2016 if you are going to make such pronouncements.

[DrScholl]

The only correct way to look at these polls, same as 2016, is if the Dems are under 50% then Trump is actually ahead. 2016 showed us this that yes, shy Trump supporters are a thing (usually the 'standard R' voters that don't like his style but love his policies) and that Trump should never be underestimated.

So Trump is leading even when he's behind in polls? That is some weird logic. Why people are even still using the 50% rule is beyond comprehension considering that plenty of elections are won by candidates who never reach 50% in polling and some races have been lost by candidates who have reached 50%.

[DrScholl]

The only correct way to look at these polls, same as 2016, is if the Dems are under 50% then Trump is actually ahead. 2016 showed us this that yes, shy Trump supporters are a thing (usually the 'standard R' voters that don't like his style but love his policies) and that Trump should never be underestimated.

So Trump is leading even when he's behind in polls? That is some weird logic. Why people are even still using the 50% rule is beyond comprehension considering that plenty of elections are won by candidates who never reach 50% in polling and some races have been lost by candidates who have reached 50%.

If the number of undecideds is greater than the Dem margin then I don't see how that's very weird logic. We saw this all throughout 2016 (and several in 2018) where Dems were sure they would win because they led, and then we saw how undecideds broke in the end.

There is also conventional logic that says that undecideds break for the challenger. With that said, Trump's path to victory is through a plurality of the vote like it was last time.