ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[DrScholl]

Times up, Susan.

[DrScholl]

IMO Collins is probably screwed this year. She's systematically ruined the crossover vote that keeps getting her reelected by voting in a blatantly partisan manner.

Collins = Trump is a way more plausible argument than it would've been two years ago.

The tax cuts + Kavanaugh + impeachment could be a combination that proves to be her undoing. It's very difficult for me to see Collins running that much ahead of Trump now. I still think she is favored, as things stand now, but if she wins, it will be with a close margin.

Explain to me why you think Collins is still favored.

Since Maine has more Democrats than Republicans (and she has obviously alienated the former), she's going  to need independents to break her way.

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

Maine has trended to the right, even though it is still a Democratic-leaning state, and Collins will not need to run substantially ahead of Trump to win reelection-and of course, I don't think she will. To say nothing of the fact that Gideon isn't the strongest opponent, and candidate quality, even in this age of increased polarization, still does matter. Just look at Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale, for examples of this. However, I have also said before that Collins could very well suffer the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith, and such a fate is now much more likely because of her vote on impeachment.

Please answer the second question:

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

-Maine is a relatively small state where retails politics and a good constituency service can help you at getting the support of some voters who rarely back your party
-the incumbecy bonus which is still worth 3 to 4 points
-some people who don't like Trump don't necessarily want to see him impeached
-some people are not voting on the impeachment issue and care more about local issues or more serious stuff

- Retail politics can be used by her opponent as well. Good constituent services don't always save politicians. There have been people who have done everything right and still lost. She's lost much of her Democratic support in polling.
- Incumbency is a double edged sword in this case because Collins' record is being used against her.
- But those same people still might vote against him and Collins on reasons other than impeachment.
- Local issues are handled by local councils and such. Susan Collins has no ability to fix potholes.

[DrScholl]

Collins says today that she wants 16 debates, one in each county.

The only logical conclusion from this statement is that Collins is down in her internals.

https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/politics/lets-debate-tonight-collins-responds-to-gideons-call-for-debates/97-359e2c22-b5c4-4bb1-bed7-0ff638b5db4e

You didn’t give the full picture. After winning her primary, Gideon challenged her to 5 debates, and Collins said she could do 16.

Maybe Gideon is down in her internals?

5 is a lot different than 16. If Collins isn't down in her internals then the only other explanation is that she has taken leave of her senses. 16 debates is insane.

[DrScholl]

Collins says today that she wants 16 debates, one in each county.

The only logical conclusion from this statement is that Collins is down in her internals.

https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/politics/lets-debate-tonight-collins-responds-to-gideons-call-for-debates/97-359e2c22-b5c4-4bb1-bed7-0ff638b5db4e

You didn’t give the full picture. After winning her primary, Gideon challenged her to 5 debates, and Collins said she could do 16.

Maybe Gideon is down in her internals?

5 is a lot different than 16. If Collins isn't down in her internals then the only other explanation is that she has taken leave of her senses. 16 debates is insane.

Neither, but the latter is actually more likely. Atlas mocked Ernst (and Trump) for asking for more debates. Gideon has done the same, and Collins said she could do more than that (knowing it was also a cheap ploy to make her seem out of touch). Also, we have seen 2 Collins internals that showed her up 1 and 8 points (the first was conducted by the Tarrance Group which is pretty accurate).

Let me ask you this though, do you think Gideon is down in her internals? If she has enough cash to boost her name recognition in the state, why is she calling for more debates? Is she looking for another, “The president has learned a pretty big lesson” moment? Can’t she beat an already unpopular Susan Collins without attacking her?

A challenger is going to ask for debates, but a supposedly safe incumbent usually doesn't. Gideon would want to raise her profile some with debates, whereas Collins is probably the one looking to create some sort of gotcha moment with Gideon. The difference between 5 and 16 is quite large. It's pretty crazy to even suggest 16 debates.

When internals are high on undecideds and tend to push the challenger below 40% while public polling shows otherwise then it's probably a poor internal.

[DrScholl]

I didn't see where that debate would really impact voters either way because it was pretty standard.

[DrScholl]

Collins literally couldn't even answer about supporting Trump or not. How is that good for Collins?

Collins was prepared for it, didn't miss a beat, and said Mainers didn't need her advice on who to vote for for president. Whether you agree or not (and she was clearly dodging), most people in the middle who are making up their minds would see that as a reasonable answer. Later in the debate, Collins asked Gideon if she would have supported Justice Roberts, and Gideon literally stumbled and looked like a blubbering mess. It wasn't a good look.

Gideon actually said she would have to research when Collins asked her about voting for Roberts and honestly that was a strange question considering that Roberts has been on the court for years. That aside, saying who you support for President has nothing to do with giving voters advice on who to vote for. Regardless, I don't think either of these things are a game changer. Short of an Akin or Mourdock moment, these debates don't much matter.