California independence updates (user search)
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Author Topic: California independence updates  (Read 778 times)
DrScholl
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Posts: 18,363
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« on: December 25, 2016, 10:52:42 PM »

Uh... even in California, this would lose 70%-30%. It might even provide a rally round the flag effect for Trump in 2020 and get him to 40% in the state.

Nothing would get Trump 40% of the vote in California. Just because people might vote against a secession effort doesn't mean they suddenly become Trump fanatics.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,363
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #1 on: December 25, 2016, 11:18:05 PM »

Uh... even in California, this would lose 70%-30%. It might even provide a rally round the flag effect for Trump in 2020 and get him to 40% in the state.

Nothing would get Trump 40% of the vote in California. Just because people might vote against a secession effort doesn't mean they suddenly become Trump fanatics.

One thing that got completely ignored during this election is the fact that there was no GOP senate candidate running in California. Unfortunately, they adopted that nonsensical LA system where the top two vote getters are put on the general ballot.

Imagine how many republicans stayed home because they knew there was absolutely no point in showing up. Trump wasn't going to win the state, and they had no Republican candidate to vote for in the senate. So why bother?

I guarantee that this cost Trump at least 5 percentage points.

That doesn't really add up. He over performed Romney in the most rural, Republican areas of the state and when you go further down ballot, plenty of Republican incumbents survived despite Trump tanking in their districts. That doesn't suggest that Republican turnout was down enough to cost Trump 5%.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,363
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2016, 12:13:10 PM »

I doubt a secession effort would/will be successful. Even if voters approve it (what I question), congress would never allow the departure of the state. Because if they do, it could be the end of the union as we know it. It would help efforts in other states to become an independent country, most notably TX.

I'm also still confidant that secession would do more harm than good for CA. Sure, the Trumpster is a serious concern, but he won't be president forever.

I don't know. Is there really anything that would stop Trump from refusing to accept an election result or recognize term limits? I could see him ignoring both of those things based on his arrogance.
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