So what the hell is going on in Colorado?

[DrScholl]

Democrats close well in Colorado, even in 2012, Romney was up in some polling at this stage.

[DrScholl]

Democrats close well in Colorado, even in 2012, Romney was up in some polling at this stage.

PPP at this point gave Obama a 6 point lead in Colorado(late September).  

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html#polls

I know you think Udall will win, but you've got to admit that the PPP poll must make you a little bit nervous.

No, it doesn't make me nervous, because Buck lead in 2010 in the final poll and went on to lose, which is actually a better measure to compare this race to.

[DrScholl]

Where does this whole "Democrats close well" thing come from? Buck? He was just as much of a loon as Angle, and you didn't see Heller or Sandoval suddenly lose out of nowhere, nor does that stigma exist AT ALL in Nevada. It is about the candidate, and Gardner is a fantastic candidate. Is he up 6? No. Is it conceivable that he is up about 2? Sure.

Sandoval was always up by a large amount in Nevada and Berkley struggled throughout the campaign, even Democratic internals were not great for her. Gardner is as right-wing as Buck and has flip-flopped on personhood, which will matter in the end.

[DrScholl]

Democrats close well in Colorado, even in 2012, Romney was up in some polling at this stage.

PPP at this point gave Obama a 6 point lead in Colorado(late September).  

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html#polls

I know you think Udall will win, but you've got to admit that the PPP poll must make you a little bit nervous.

No, it doesn't make me nervous, because Buck lead in 2010 in the final poll and went on to lose, which is actually a better measure to compare this race to.

One error within the margin of error is enough for you to assume some unique polling phenomenon must occur in Colorado to the benefit of Democratic candidates? Buck's lead (1%) was within the margin of error of the poll, so his loss does not lend credence to this novel theory, given that such an event both a) would be expected to occur one out of four times and b) was not replicated in either 2008 or 2012.

Calm down. My point is, Udall can still win this, even if the last poll showed him down two, since that is hardly out of reach. Independents are tied in the last poll and Gardner would have to do a lot better than that to win outright, especially when there are still undecided Democrats.

As someone who volunteers for campaigns, there are lots of Democrats who don't decide until the last minute and in blue leaning states, that can make the difference.