Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[RogueBeaver]

Forgetting that the Senate has a say too...

[RogueBeaver]

CTV: 50/50 odds TPP signed tomorrow.

Lapierre previews tonight's debate.

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS: 33.4/26.7/25.6.

[RogueBeaver]

He said for a while that the lead was stable, with small regional shifts.

Interesting article from Grit pollster Michael Marzolini.

[RogueBeaver]

Don't think there was a clear winner.

[RogueBeaver]

TPP signed soon?

Le Devoir on the Dippers here.

Ivison on Brampton.

Breguet's latest projection.

[RogueBeaver]

Justin's chief strategist, Gerry Butts, pioneered that strategy for McGuinty in 2007. Know your opponent, Dippers.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm quoting Maclean's Butts profile.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Anyways, the point is that the Grit strategy was far from unpredictable.

[RogueBeaver]

TPP seems likely to be unveiled in a few hours.

[RogueBeaver]

The other prairie parties are dead.

[RogueBeaver]

Some pollster clues: Graves told Ian MacDonald yesterday that while the Grits gained since Tuesday, Tories still hold a slight lead. Bricker tweeted this afternoon that NDP is in 3rd but higher than others peg them in ON, lead a 4-way race here in QC. He was curious whether the Grits were extending their lead or Tories closing.

[RogueBeaver]

That would require Francophone numbers they haven't had since 2003. Ideological, party and personal baggage all weigh on Justin in ROQ.

[RogueBeaver]

TPP DEAL REACHED.

Grits are dropping in BC and ON.

[RogueBeaver]

Liberals invented it, NDP are their usual trade selves, and Tories are too incrementalist.

[RogueBeaver]

Strange considering the 63% topline, but meh.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos: 33/32/26.

[RogueBeaver]

A link to Nanos for those interested and to the Mainstreet poll, too (which appears to be a week old, for what it's worth).

Interesting regional dynamics in the Nanos poll: Tories and Libs drop in equal measure in Ontario while NDP makes a modest jump. Tories and NDP continue to slide in Quebec while the Libs slowly gain steam. Tories jump in BC, but still in third, while the Libs jump in the Prairies, but still a distant second.

All in all, though, still the same story that Ipsos and EKOS have shown over the past week: Lib/Tory tie for 1st, NDP well behind.

I disagree about the reverse-2011 scenario. The NDP had very slow growth in the first 2/3 of the campaign in 2011 followed by a sudden rise. 2015 has been more of a slow, steady decline for them.

I can't really think of an election this one resembles in terms of its general pattern. Has there ever been a case where the main opposition party has lost its lead gradually while the incumbent and third parties gain until they're in a head-to-head match?

2007 here.

[RogueBeaver]

Graves said he's had the Tories ahead for nearly 3 weeks now. His first daily tracker is out in 3 hours.

[RogueBeaver]

Tory Mississauga candidate defends gay conversion therapy.

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS: 35.1/30.5/22.3.

[RogueBeaver]

That Tory candidate has been repudiated, but he'll still be on the ballot.

Robert Fisher says the campaign reminds him of ON 1999.

[RogueBeaver]

La Presse endorses Justin for ideological reasons.

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting Vincent Marissal column on NPD's Operation Save the Furniture. 1) Voters want to vote for them but are put off by niqabs, more amenable talking about other issues. 2) NDP internal polling shows a Tory lead in Quebec City 3) Certain staffers begged Mulcair to stop answering niqab questions 4) a majority of his Quebec caucus disagrees with him on niqabs. 5) Door reaction to niqabs is so hostile that some candidates, particularly in Quebec City, have voluntarily stopped door canvassing for the past 2 weeks.

[RogueBeaver]

That plugged-in activist quoted on caucus discontent? That's not even his killer quote. << Mulcair a réagi en libéral, ce qu’il est. Comme son chef de cabinet. Ce sont des libéraux qui réagissent comme des libéraux, sans avoir consulté le parti ni le caucus. »

[RogueBeaver]

The only poll I trust in my province is Leger, and given his comments on English Canadian pollsters today he's probably not seeing the same thing. But yeah, this is a continuation of the accommodement raisonnable debate.