MA Special Election Watch Thread

[RogueBeaver]

Oops: Primary 4/30, GE 6/25.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-34222_162-57566229-10391739/special-election-to-fill-kerrys-senate-seat-set-for-june-25/

[RogueBeaver]

Brown's the only one who could win that seat, and right now we don't know if he's even running.

[RogueBeaver]

Breaking on Twitter: Lynch will announce on Thursday.

Paging Scott Brown.

[RogueBeaver]

Brown moving closer to entry. First he needs an ally as state Pub chair.

http://www.businessinsider.com/scott-brown-moving-closer-to-senate-run-2013-1

[RogueBeaver]

Brown's in early next week.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/2013/01/29/scott-brown-leaning-strongly-toward-senate-bid/yUD24vBPjaPy5ZRlAYbjNP/story.html

 

[RogueBeaver]

How messy will this get, Bay Staters? Brown first broke this news to the Daily Caller, which if nothing else shows that he's now willing to reengage with national conservative media. Another bit of advice: don't tie a hand behind your back financially.

[RogueBeaver]

Patrick is naming his former aide, Mo Cowan, as the interim senator.

[RogueBeaver]

Beg pardon?

[RogueBeaver]

PPP # out: Brown leads 48/45 against Markey, 48/39 against Lynch- the gap is mostly name ID. Markey leads Lynch 52-19 in a primary.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/brownmarkey-would-start-out-as-toss-up.html

[RogueBeaver]

Regardless of which race Brown chooses, once his opponents improve name ID it'll always be a 2-3 point jumpball either way. Weld '94 aside, all the Pub wins have been 5 or less.

[RogueBeaver]

Who said it was insurmountable? 'Tis a jumpball either way. If Brown loses a second consecutive statewide race then his political career is over a la Wilson/Rehberg, but the odds would be similar in either gubernatorial or Senate races as I said a couple of posts earlier. Odds probably slightly better for guv but he isn't interested.

On a primary note, there's already stuff leaking about Lynch on Twitter.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/is-stephen-lynch-too-conservative-to-win-in-massac

[RogueBeaver]

Brown probably won't run. Safe D it is. Can understand the campaign fatigue.

http://bostonglobe.com/metro/2013/01/31/congressman-lynch-launches-campaign-for-senate-seat/0jIlwDE5YtSJirYrmCec7N/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

First AP said he's running, now Globe says he's not, your guy says he is... we gotta wait.

[RogueBeaver]

He's putting out a statement in 20 minutes. Any bet it's a no?

[RogueBeaver]

The answer is no, per The Fix. Congrats Dems.

[RogueBeaver]

Made a lot of sense. He was completely silent for months, never contacted his team, etc. Plus 4 campaigns in as many years... burnout would be a huge understatement. So now all eyes on IA.

Tisei's looking at it but he probably won't even be a decoy.

[RogueBeaver]

No. That seat is gone for Pubs until the next Scott Brown emerges. Problem is finding young talent to fit said mold.

[RogueBeaver]

Tagg Romney might be interested.

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_politics/2013/02/tagg_you%E2%80%99re_it_gop_senate_hopes

[RogueBeaver]

No. If you go dynastic they must be charismatic, street-smart retailers. Tagg Romney doesn't exactly strike me as being of that mold.

[RogueBeaver]

But Tagg is thinking about it, per NRO- always plugged into RomneyWorld.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/339736/yes-tagg-thinking-about-it-katrina-trinko

[RogueBeaver]

So he pisses off people on both sides, as Romney could tell him.