LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[RogueBeaver]

In fairly typical fashion, they also endorse the Some Dude as a solution even if I agree with the critique. Has the Leg formally rejected Medexpansion yet?

[RogueBeaver]

Landrieu's son has been arrested for DWI and hit-n'-run.

[RogueBeaver]

National Journal pegs NC as key to control. IMO if Pubs take the Senate, NC is the sole candidate for 51.

[RogueBeaver]

PPP NC poll out later today will have Foxx in the lead. Apparently she's considering it, but hopefully she stays out.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the full PPP NC poll: 36% of Pub voters are undecided, Foxx leads Berger 23/11. In matchups Hagan leads Tillis 45/40, Brannon at 44/40, and Cain 46/38. She's at 44/42 approval.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't think so. His eyes are on something bigger than a Senate seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Landrieu said on Twitter that she'd hoped Obama would've explicitly approved Keystone today, "to create jobs here at home." Hear hear.

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy will certainly need conservative enthusiasm if he wants to beat Landrieu. Things would get even more interesting in a runoff.

[RogueBeaver]

Ellmers is pushing back her decision timetable by 2 weeks, but knows how she's leaning and hints she'd support Cain if she doesn't run. Since she's probably not running, guess she's backing Cain.

[RogueBeaver]

Landrieu raised $1.7 million in Q2 and has 4.9 COH. Somehow I doubt Cassidy was close.

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy raised $1.1 million and has 3.2 COH.

[RogueBeaver]

NRSC looking for someone better than Tillis in NC. Cain seems like a decent bet to me.

[RogueBeaver]

Doesn't sound terribly enthusiastic. Even if she gets in, a reluctant candidate can be spotted a mile away.

[RogueBeaver]

Maginnis on the LA Senate race.

[RogueBeaver]

"I'll make a decision at the end of the session"

JUST DONT RUN!!!!!!

Berger? Dem glee would be well-justified if Hagan won a second term simply because the Pub bench is a mile wide and an inch deep.

[RogueBeaver]

Plus have the benefit of a state/federal pincer assist. Not only crucial for the Senate but completing local Republicanization. That article hints at a knife-fight campaign, which doesn't surprise me at all.

[RogueBeaver]

Cook gave a long talk on C-SPAN about '14 generally, but he said about LA that Landrieu's facing her toughest opponent yet without the benefit of a good Dem year. Cassidy isn't defined statewide, he doesn't think Jindal and the leg will affect Landrieu's race for now. Discussed NC a bit but basically said it hasn't really developed yet.

[RogueBeaver]

Roll Call on LA-Sen's downballot implications.

[RogueBeaver]

Ellmers isn't running for NC-Sen, just breaking now on Twitter. Said she's running for reelection.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm of two minds about a potential runoff: on one hand if Senate control hangs in the balance, as it almost certainly would, then that makes it easier for Cassidy to make one last nationalization push. On the other hand, Landrieu is known for localized minelaying- like 2002, when Terrell stepped on an agricultural one. Of course Senate control wasn't in the balance...

[RogueBeaver]

I suspect they'll focus their intraparty attention on KY/WY. Also suspect that Landrieu will try and wedge Cassidy from his base by playing up some of his more moderate votes. But Cassidy's path to victory hasn't changed: full nationalization.

[RogueBeaver]

Hoping for a new PPP poll, but NC seems to be the only Southern Senate race they poll regularly.

[RogueBeaver]

Landrieu had an interesting town hall recently.

[RogueBeaver]

Landrieu grilled Obama on Keystone, saying a strong majority of the Senate supports it. Kudos.

[RogueBeaver]

Like King, I think Foxx is sufficiently self-aware about her own toxicity to stop at headline-grabbing. Cain's the only possibility. Can you call this a recruiting failure if there's no one to recruit?