Predict the 2014 Senate result

[RogueBeaver]

Competitive races only...

AK: Lean R, but depends who runs. Parnell (if he doesn't run for a second term) or Sullivan would be best for the GOP here.

AR: Lean D. Griffin will give Pryor a tough fight but he's fairly popular in Arkansas, could go either way.

CO: Safe D, Udall's running again.

IA: Apparently Harkin's running again, so Safe D.

IL: If Durbin retires then competitive but all the best Pubs are looking at the governor's race, so who knows. Depends on who runs for both parties, Lean D for now.

LA: Landrieu is running and Cassidy is her most likely opponent, with the Jindal machine going full Blitzkrieg. Tossup/Slight R.

MA: Kerry's running again and I doubt Obama wants to potentially let Brown back into the Senate with a special election.

ME: Safe R if Collins runs, safe D if she retires.

MI: Safe D either way, the Pubs are either too conservative or too weak. Maybe TLL could make it somewhat competitive if she wanted.

MT: Empty GOP bench and Schweitzer won't primary Baucus. Safe D.

NH: GOP has a good bench but Shaheen is formidable. Likely D.

NC: Depends who runs for the GOP.

VA: Safe D with Warner, and since Warner apparently gave McAuliffe the green light to run for governor Warner's probably staying in the Senate. McDonnell's uninterested in the Senate.

WV: Rocky's probably retiring after his anti-coal screed, so the seat is SMC's if she wants it.

[RogueBeaver]

What is her popularity like nowadays? I know she tanked 2 years ago but recovered somewhat last year.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton, Griffin and Womack are all mulling runs against Pryor, but also looking at the gubernatorial.

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal wants the WH (check out his Politico interview), not a Senate seat. He's an executive by training and temperament, not a legislator- just like Warner.

AK: Ugh, not Don Young, that corrupt, squishy clown. We just lost a bunch of red state races in part because of crappy candidates. Plus there are quality candidates like Treadwell and Parnell.

AR: I think the Senate race will be harder than the gubernatorial. So long as they're both running in separate races, because both are conservative stars.

VA: Warner has given the green light to McAuliffe, so I doubt he's running. Weird considering how much he supposedly hates the Senate...

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy's a strong opponent, plus the Jindal machine and overall Republicanization. But I'd categorize this as tossup or at best Slight R for now.

AR: Similar to LA but no GOP machine on the ground. Griffin and Cotton are young conservative stars with plenty of fundraising power. On the flip side, Pryor's approvals are over 50 and the name is second only to Clinton.

AK: Lean R. Parnell or Treadwell are very strong opponents.

NC: Agreed. GOP bench is a problem.

[RogueBeaver]

GOP takes LA, SD, WV. If Collins pulls a Snowe then Dems take her seat. I'm unsure how strong the GOP bench is in NC so we'll see. With the AR troika declining then Pryor most likely wins unless a national wave lifts a second-tier Pub to victory. In NH Guinta will run against Shaheen, some people think Sununu might try for Round 3 but IMO both are damaged goods. National wave required for Shaheen to lose, she's quite popular IIRC.

[RogueBeaver]

If the Republicans want to win in NC, they need a women to face Hagan.

I heard Liddy Dole hasn't had a job for 4 years...

Absolutely not. She threw away a seat more spectacularly than Allen but not quite Akin-territory.

Yea, she would not win. I'm not sure who it will be, but if Republicans want this seat back, IMO, it is going to be with a woman Republican, not a male.

Renee Ellmers is the only female option I can think of.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, that's a Winfield/Politico map.

As I've said before, I think the GOP picks up AK/LA/SD/WV. Dems keep AR and NC because of weak Pub benches in those states. And I really hope Sununu doesn't go for Round 3 in NH and embarrass everyone except his immediate family.

[RogueBeaver]

I think Baucus would have a good shot even without the crappy GOP bench if only because he's been there so long, has a decent profile at home and has the "don't shoot Santa Claus" thing that works so well for McConnell and Reid.

AR: Darr hasn't closed the door but is apparently more interested in governor. Cotton seems to be leaning no to any sort of upgrade this cycle. IMO he'd be more useful as governor than in the Senate.  

As for the Dems, no pickups unless Collins retires unexpectedly.

CO: Now that's Winfield territory. Not unless Udall retired and it was Gardner against a middling-to-weak Dem opponent in a middling-to-strong Pub cycle.

MA: Even if Kerry gets the nod Brown should leave that alone, I don't think the GOP can hold those seats in a presidential cycle unless it's strongly GOP to begin with plus a weakish Dem opponent. He should run for governor instead, which is eminently winnable and not up in presidential years.

[RogueBeaver]

Norton's campaign was crap, and I say that as someone who supported her back then. Why would it miraculously improve in the GE?

As for MN, it's Minnesota, home of HHH and Wellstone, and Ron Johnsons don't grow on trees. Even if they found one he'd be a decoy at best. Maybe a close run decoy like Graves against Bachmann, but decoy nonetheless. Don't get me started on OR.

NC: Weak field. Yes Hagan could face a tough fight against a first-tier opponent, but none exist.

[RogueBeaver]

I wonder whether Darr or Womack could be induced to run in AR, since Griffin is firmly out and Cotton seems disinclined to hopscotch this early. My feeling is that Darr runs for governor, dunno about Womack.

[RogueBeaver]

AK: Begich trounces Miller, probably an underdog against Treadwell and definitely Parnell. Won by a handful of votes against a convicted felon in a Dem wave year.

AR: Pryor beats Darr, tossup against Cotton.

CO: Udall beats all likely competitors.

IA: Safe Braley with King, Tossup/Slight R with Latham.

LA: Tossup/Slight R with Cassidy.

MA: Now Safe D.

SD: Lean R with Johnson, Likely R without him.

WV: Safe R with Capito.

[RogueBeaver]

For now, R+4 (SD/WV/MT/AR), subject to change. I see AK/LA as Tilt D, NC as Lean D. IA/MI Likely D.