Italy 2013: The official thread

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi talked again about the need for abolition of public financing. Hear hear. Also wants the parties to post their expenses online. OpenSecrets, Italian Edition.

http://video.repubblica.it/edizione/firenze/renzi-nessun-dossier-la-trasparenza-nelle-spese-dei-partiti/122022/120509

[RogueBeaver]

We'll have phased our federal one out by 2015, no real backlash. It forces the parties to go grassroots or out of business. If done over a few years to give everyone time for adjustment... but I suspect we'll agree to disagree here.

[RogueBeaver]

The PD and M5S negotiators sit down tomorrow, but no one seems overly confident. M5S leaders repeating that anyone who votes confidence gets booted from caucus.

http://www.campanianotizie.com/politica/italia/54821-pd-eletti-con-bersani-ma-cresce-fronte-scettici.html

M5S still not Renzi fans.

http://www.gonews.it/articolo_185550_Bonafede-M5S-Il-ritorno-di-Renzi-aumenta-il-caos.html

[RogueBeaver]

Phil: Only a Renzi trial matchup last week that showed him boosting PD to a 35-28-26 lead with Berlusconi in 3rd. Also PPM with 28% to 14% for Bersani, 13% Grillo, 10% Berlusconi.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/08/us-italy-vote-renzi-idUSBRE92706V20130308

[RogueBeaver]

So no statistically significant change, which doesn't surprise me.

[RogueBeaver]

Fight populism with populism. He knows how to operate in this environment, they don't. Compared to bribing people with their own tax dollars, perhaps paid from the leader's own pocket, in one case and 20 hour workweeks in the other, this is about a 3 on the Populimeter.

Speaking of which, SWG Tweeted a poll saying 82% of voters support an end to public financing.

[RogueBeaver]

I'd say it would like Greece's 2nd round last June. Close but no cigar. Even if Berlusconi or Grillo won the Camera they wouldn't have a Senate majority. That said I certainly don't want Bersani leading PD into the next election.

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi: I'm ready to be a primary and PM candidate. So he's announced his candidacy for a race that hasn't formally opened yet. Bersani's probably hitting the roof.

http://espresso.repubblica.it/dettaglio/renzi-io-sono-pronto/2202395

[RogueBeaver]

The speakers won't be elected till Monday earliest since M5S is not supporting the PD nominees. 2/3 for the first 5 ballots, simple majority after. So that means PDL will have to vote for the PD nominee if they want this over with quickly.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/38537/M5S-says-no-Speakers-deal--Bersani-still-open-to-talks.html

[RogueBeaver]

Reports on Twitter that PD is negotiating with Monti and Lega. Given Berlusconi's recent declarations, one wonders if he at least yellow-lighted this approach to his junior partner.

[RogueBeaver]

Phil: "We need speakers to start the symbolic government formation negotiations, after which we will elect Amato President and dissolve Parliament." Also some speculation that Bersani will want immediate dissolution to avoid a primary, though a) probably not happening b) wouldn't get away with it.

Antonio: No dissent here.

[RogueBeaver]

PD candidate Laura Boldrini has been elected Camera Speaker. Now for the Senate.

Napolitano has asked Monti to stay till the process is complete, as we predicted. Over Monti's objections- he wanted to be Senate Speaker.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/16/us-italy-vote-idUSBRE92F06Y20130316

[RogueBeaver]

So now formal talks can begin on Wednesday.

[RogueBeaver]

Who's Meloni? The last trial heat had Renzi boosting PD to a 7-point lead over M5S with PDL in third.

[RogueBeaver]

PdL's support nearly halves without Berlusconi, as we saw in summer polls. Which is what happens when you remove the personality from its cult.

Speaking of polls, new SWG has M5S 30%, PdL 29%, PD 27%, Monti 9.

[RogueBeaver]

PD dropping 2, PdL holding steady and M5S gaining 5 is basically MOE stuff, hardly unbelievable.

[RogueBeaver]

Any idea how long the consultations will take? Or if PD and PdL have agreed on a consensus presidential candidate?

[RogueBeaver]

Need one for a new election though. One name I've heard is Amato, which makes sense. Both sides respect him and he's presided over a party system collapse before.

[RogueBeaver]

Awesome. Wonder who else might be floated.

[RogueBeaver]

Monti doesn't seem like someone who'd be an obstructionist here.

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi: Get on offense NOW, you're ceding all the initiative to Grillo. Hear, hear. Bersani's outreach is bordering on masochism right now. Were I him I'd go for a few days of pro forma consultations, return my mandate and prepare for the presidential vote. Then dissolve.

http://www.unita.it/italia/renzi-il-pd-all-attacco-funziona-1.489792

[RogueBeaver]

Monti and M5S tomorrow, PD and PdL on Thursday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/19/us-italy-vote-idUSBRE92I19U20130319

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi's prepping the knife, trying to ensure that if there's a snap poll it won't happen in June.

http://www.ilfoglio.it/soloqui/17404

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed on the election date, but there's no sign of any formula all parties can agree on. Given how unstable things are right now they need to think of any electoral scenario which might befall them.

Also: Berlusconi said he'd bring his supporters out on the streets if a centre-left president is chosen.

[RogueBeaver]

Bersani will get a provisional mandate today.