Italy 2013: The official thread

[RogueBeaver]

Well, Axelrod is working for Monti.

[RogueBeaver]

Was reported in Politico a while back- he was even slammed in the Italian media. Not that it affects the election outcome.

[RogueBeaver]

What's their beef about Obama meeting with Napolitano?

[RogueBeaver]

As someone who's never followed an Italian election closely before (followed the past 2 on and off), how long does the count take?

[RogueBeaver]

My prediction: IBC wins by 5-6 in the Chamber, forced into a formal Senate coalition with Monti.

[RogueBeaver]

What are the odds of a centre-right upset in the Chamber of Deputies? I'd say no more than 10-15% myself, but curious as to what others think.

[RogueBeaver]

Seems to me like he's hurting Berlusconi. I remember SB's numbers going up when Grillo's went down a few weeks ago. One thing we know for sure: SB is trolling hard for the low and ultra-low info segment of the electorate with his unicorn-that-kinda-nukes-the-economy "policies."

[RogueBeaver]

Leaked exits apparently say Bersani by 5, Monti underperforming.

[RogueBeaver]

Monti: Towards the lower end of that, 11% or so.

[RogueBeaver]

He's not a politician. I dunno what a post-SB PDL will look like given that it's more personality cult than ideologically-based political party. An ICB/Monti Senate coalition might push Bersani a bit farther on the economic front, since his own track record is decidedly mixed.

[RogueBeaver]

Already discussed at length, though we didn't hear about the other senators.

[RogueBeaver]

It'll get tied up in appeals like everything else.

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi: We're hitting the trail again very shortly. Said another primary was inevitable but didn't say whether he'd run or not. Yeah, Bersani's leadership countdown has definitely begun.

http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=199254

[RogueBeaver]

The Renzi push continues. Dunno why Bersani got such a resounding endorsement at leadership review given how epically failed his campaign was.

http://fr.reuters.com/article/frEuroRpt/idFRL6N0C08VJ20130308?sp=true

[RogueBeaver]

My question is what happens during the limbo between Bersani's failure and the presidential vote. Does Monti stay in office, another technocrat appointed for a few weeks? Then the new president dissolves parliament. Another question: if there were to be a PD leadership switch, when and how would that happen?

[RogueBeaver]

There would be a left challenge to Renzi. Either Bersani or another man... Stefano [last name]. A primary would have to be held pre-election, pushing dissolution back a bit.

[RogueBeaver]

Antonio and other Italians can correct me if I'm wrong, but my read is that while Renzi puts more of an emphasis on centre than left in centre-left than Bersani, we're talking within or barely outside the MOE. Both men agree on broadbrush issues. Bersani tried labour market reform as a minister, with mixed success and probably with mixed enthusiasm as well. Difference is political skill as Antonio said. The sort of policymaking required needs to be sold and not imposed, Monti proves that beyond a shadow of a doubt. Bersani is clueless about both political and policy marketing.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Fassina's the guy.

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi is now openly calling for a prelex primary if Bersani can't form a government. How to trigger one is the question.

http://www.corriere.it/politica/13_marzo_09/renzi-intervento-che-tempo-che-fa_8f6ebc7c-88e3-11e2-b463-ff37879da0fc.shtml

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi gets the Murdoch endorsement, not that he should be publicizing it.

http://www.formiche.net/2013/03/09/renzi-murdoch-endorsement/

[RogueBeaver]

When do the formal talks start? Next week? Seen a bunch of different dates.

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi hits leadership for being idealess, Fassina accuses him of being disloyal to the party and basically immature. Long past time for the old hacks to step aside, unless they want Grillo to win outright soon enough.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/us-italy-vote-left-idUSBRE9290DR20130310

[RogueBeaver]

He knows it will fail. Leadership knows too, else they wouldn't be hitting him. Fassina would be his biggest primary competition if Bersani didn't run.  Seems to me that both men are prepositioning for primary purposes.

[RogueBeaver]

Grillo said he'd quit politics if his senators gave confidence to a political government. C'est fini.

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi wants a snap election after a new electoral law is devised.

http://www.diarioprogresista.es/renzi-urge-a-bersani-a-que-convoque-elecciones-en-italia-25584.htm