Italy 2013: The official thread (user search)
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Author Topic: Italy 2013: The official thread  (Read 234860 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #25 on: January 15, 2013, 12:33:34 PM »
If he did change his mind, how soon would we know? At any rate SB would be the puppetmaster if anyone other than himself was chosen as the PM candidate in a PDL-win scenario, so dunno what sort of point Maroni is making.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #26 on: January 17, 2013, 09:04:40 AM »
What kind of pact?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #27 on: January 17, 2013, 09:29:11 AM »
Presumably for Senate purposes, since the COD has the majority bonus. That could mean Bersani wants a buffer from his party's left wing.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #28 on: January 18, 2013, 05:44:12 PM »
Lowest common denominator. But as LBJ said in another context, don't get in a pissing contest with a polecat.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #29 on: January 22, 2013, 09:56:20 AM »
Which pollsters are generally regarded as most accurate, if any?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #30 on: January 27, 2013, 11:10:03 AM »
He also defended Mussolini's decision to ally with Hitler in those same remarks. Note the venue.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/berlusconi-defends-mussolini-backing-hitler
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #31 on: January 31, 2013, 03:51:30 PM »
1) Are those national 2) How reliable are said pollsters? In the end I think this could be within 5 but Bersani still wins.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #32 on: January 31, 2013, 03:57:07 PM »
We've still got a few weeks left. I'll only panic if it's Purple heart in the last week.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #33 on: February 02, 2013, 08:25:54 PM »
Joke candidate. Not much more I can say without getting infracted.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #34 on: February 03, 2013, 08:59:12 AM »
So long as he doesn't win the national vote. Worst nightmare: 2006 scenario reversed.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #35 on: February 03, 2013, 10:26:41 AM »
So still a 5-6 pt race. Whew.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #36 on: February 03, 2013, 10:34:05 AM »
I'd rather it be 5-6 than say, 2-3. Tongue
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #37 on: February 03, 2013, 07:40:34 PM »
Apparently Berlusconi's big economic speech today was about repealing the new property tax (replacing lost revenue by striking a tax deal with Switzerland), the regional business tax and cut personal income tax. Naturally there's nothing about how to finance any of this.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #38 on: February 03, 2013, 07:58:54 PM »
As usual with him, lowest common denominator.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #39 on: February 03, 2013, 08:25:03 PM »
Whichever coalition wins a plurality of the Chamber of Deputies popular vote automatically gets ~54%, or 340ish, seats. In 2006 Prodi beat Berlusconi by 0.1% as an example. Senate's more complicated, ask one of the Italians here.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #40 on: February 05, 2013, 10:29:24 PM »
Ugh. Just ugh.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #41 on: February 06, 2013, 02:10:41 PM »
Which of these pollsters is considered the most accurate?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #42 on: February 06, 2013, 05:10:28 PM »
I was gonna ask "what sort of national candidate publicly talks about their internals", but this is SB and therefore the regular playbook is totally irrelevant. Tongue
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #43 on: February 08, 2013, 10:39:47 PM »
So looking like a 4-5 point IBC victory at this stage, so long as we don't get a 2006 repeat. If there are any last minute shifts we won't know.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #44 on: February 09, 2013, 08:15:44 AM »
NYT calls SB a "wildcard", that he can't win outright but just wants influence.  I hope they're right.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/09/world/europe/berlusconi-remains-the-wild-card-in-italy-parliament-race.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&_r=0
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #45 on: February 09, 2013, 03:25:00 PM »
That seems most likely to me. Has Italy done GE debates before, and if so, in which elections?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #46 on: February 10, 2013, 07:38:57 PM »
Tactical voting.

ERVND: No, because SB is talking fairy tales instead of actual, ya know, policies. He'd screw up the economy even worse if by some nightmare he got back in.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #47 on: February 14, 2013, 07:31:04 PM »
Yeah, I don't think a Milan victory helps SB win nationally. Maybe boost him provincially a bit but that's it.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #48 on: February 14, 2013, 10:14:41 PM »
What sort of scandals? Nothing MP level presumably.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #49 on: February 15, 2013, 10:16:53 AM »

A guess or something more concrete? Wink
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