Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[RogueBeaver]

A joint fundraiser with Jindal today has stoked some speculation, though highly doubtful.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303612804577529033908930986.html

[RogueBeaver]

You can't precisely call it, but historical precedent is a pretty good guide. That's how I arrived at my Palin prediction in '08 well before it was fashionable. Precedent (Dole, GHWB, Quayle, Kemp, Palin) suggests Romney selects a younger person from another wing of the party. So I'd be surprised if it was someone other than Pawlenty or Ryan.

[RogueBeaver]

Race 4 2012 ranks Jindal ahead of Portman and Ryan but that makes no sense. Can't see Romney picking someone he barely knows.

http://race42012.com/2012/07/16/vp-power-rankings-july/

[RogueBeaver]

Drudge is more likely a false-flag given his ties to Boston and Condi stuff last week. Plus he's gotten just about every Veep wrong on both sides- in 2008 he called Bayh as Obama's running mate and either Romney or Pawlenty as McCain's, just to name one cycle.

[RogueBeaver]

Thune is not going to juice the base, has done no surrogacy for Romney and has never met Romney one-on-one so far as we know. An establishmentarian who won't juice the base and has never been publicly vetted. Not happening.

[RogueBeaver]

I wonder if this tax return/Bain stuff is forcing Romney to come out with his running mate earlier than he would have liked. This is getting awfully close to the Olympics and his Europe trip. But it sure looks like we could be hearing something soon.

It explains the contradictions we've been getting from his campaign.

The first rumors about an early pick were what, 5-6 weeks ago for a search process that began 3 months ago? Plus all the shortlisters have been publicly vetted (and in Pawlenty's case, privately) to at least some extent, making her job easier.

[RogueBeaver]

Fehrnstrom denied, per CNN, that Romney has already decided. Didn't deny that the pick might be this week.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/16/romney-aide-no-decision-on-running-mate/

[RogueBeaver]

Race 4 2012 claims the rollout is this week.

http://race42012.com/2012/07/16/the-race-4-2012-rumor-mill-back-end-edition/

[RogueBeaver]

Thune was always implausible. Personally I still think the final 2 are Pawlenty/Ryan, down to a knife blade.

[RogueBeaver]

Reuters claims the finalists are Portman/Pawlenty/Jindal, but again Jindal makes no sense because he hasn't spent any time with Romney. Romney won't pick someone he barely knows.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/16/us-usa-campaign-romney-vicepresident-idINBRE86F1BM20120716

[RogueBeaver]

Hagrid: Same here. Not that he's bad, but just so MEH. Still holding out hope for Ryan.

Julio: He said plenty of nice things about Romney before Perry entered and never criticized Romney. But they never connected for whatever reason, so he's not on the shortlist.

[RogueBeaver]

National Journal has their latest (possibly last) veepstakes rankings:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/your-favorite-vice-hotline-s-veepstakes-power-rankings-20120716

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Doubt Rubio is either a quarterfinalist or finalist (except for keynote), otherwise agreed.

[RogueBeaver]

Romney has announced the senior VP staff.

http://race42012.com/2012/07/17/romney-announces-vice-presidentd-staff/

[RogueBeaver]

Can anyone put up the full article? Thx.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/us/politics/romney-vice-presidential-search-began-months-ago.html?gwh=E93A55FCE987AD87C3257E64BB5BF0D8&pagewanted=all

[RogueBeaver]

Can only hope Romney sees it that way.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm still putting my money on Ryan.

Does anyone know Ryan's approval numbers in Wisconsin?

44/39 last I heard and according to PPP he does give Romney Cheesehead lift. (50/43 to 47/46, IIRC) Has both the Beltway crowd and the grassroots, whereas Pawlenty only has the Beltway.

[RogueBeaver]

WI pads the margin, but it isn't 270. (more like 28/9x) VA is a much likelier contender for that role. If he's it, home state lift will be just a bonus.

[RogueBeaver]

OH and VA, probably in that order IMO, would topple first. Anyhoo, wrong thread for electoral maps.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently page 2 of that article says that Pawlenty and Portman are the finalists with Ryan and Jindal as dark horses. Yet I'm still unconvinced for all the reasons I've said before.

Pawlenty:

The buzz is too loud and it makes no sense for the pick to be publicly named before the actual rollout. Plus his debate bombing- not just Obamneycare but losing to Michele Bachmann. If you can't beat Bachmann how are you going to fare against Joe Biden? Bob Costa at NRO said one of Romney's criteria is attack dog. Pawlenty perfectly fits Healey's description of Howe: "like being savaged by a dead sheep."


Portman:

1) Flunked the chem test.

2) Bushier than any Bushie not named Bush, as I said in the other thread.

Oh, and apparently Christie and Pawlenty will be holding a joint fundraiser for Romney next week.

Money quote from Costa's interview with Romney:

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[RogueBeaver]

Question: If Romney announces this week, will the running mate go with him to the Olympics?

No, they're doing what Hagrid said.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently Jindal is campaigning in Ohio for Romney tomorrow, but on the other side of the state from him.

So is Jeb.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/07/jeb-jindal-to-headline-romney-ohio-events-129239.html

[RogueBeaver]

[RogueBeaver]

We'll agree to disagree.

Here's my compilation of the Fab 4's last campaign appearances or TV surrogacies, in alphabetical order.

Jindal: CNN July 1, LA July 18 (OH July 19).

Pawlenty: CBS June 24, OH July 5.

Portman: FOX July 16.

Ryan: Janesville June 18, FTN July 15.


For once I agree with Ezra Klein.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/07/11/veepstakes-the-case-against-an-incredibly-boring-white-guy/

[RogueBeaver]

OK then. The idea of doing it before the Olympics was always a bit far-fetched and OOC for a by-the-book guy like Romney. So either after he returns or the traditional schedule.

[RogueBeaver]

I was starting to get excited, too. Shucks.

Don't worry. Something tells me our patience will get rewarded.