He is probably going to win it anyways. Not like it would ever happen anyways. Ryan would be an idiot to take a chance to be a losing VP candidate and give up what he has now.
I don't understand your 1st sentence. Ryan doesn't have to give up his congressional seat (remember Lieberman ran for reelection and VP) and VP nomination would make him a national leader not just a republican leader. I know losing VP has a history of problems, but FDR didn't. It is a real possibility because it is the only way to get him out of the box he's in... He couldn't run for Governor or Senator because it would have been a step down from budget chairman. Only options for him are VP or speaker. Hard to run from current position next time, even if he is the brains of the party. Maybe if he chaired Ways and means he'd have a prestigious enough resume, but it is hard to become president from a congressional seat. Easier being the next guy in line in the GOP or a sitting Vice President.
Not all states allow someone to run for two offices simultaneously. I know you can't in South Carolina. I don't know what the law is like in Wisconsin.
IIRC they do have their own LBJ law.
On the OP: Depends how well both sides play defense and offense of their respective positions. Given Romney and Ryan's close political and personal relationship they'll be ticket mates either de facto or de jure anyways, which both they and the President have already accepted.
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